Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (26521)	3/29/2005 2:19:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The 'housing bubble' U.S. market appears headed for slowdown By KEVIN G. HALL Knight Ridder Newspapers WASHINGTON — The U.S. housing market finally appears headed for a slowdown after four years of spectacular growth that has raised widespread fears of a real estate “bubble.” Because rising short-term interest rates and worries about inflation are driving up the price of home mortgages nationwide, home sales are expected to slow, and prices in some markets could even fall. Economists differ over how much sales might drop: • Optimists expect the growth in sales to level off from phenomenal recent peaks. • Pessimists warn that many metropolitan markets might see bursts of housing “bubbles” —markets in which speculative investment drove prices higher than usual demand can sustain — similar to the collapse of the high-tech stock-market bubble in the late 1990s. Although mortgage rates remain relatively low, they’re rising, and that’s fueling the debate: • The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate crept up to a seven-month high of 5.85 percent March 10, up from 5.34 percent a year earlier. • The one-year adjustable-rate mortgage — popular with investors who buy homes to resell quickly — is about 4.24 percent, up from 3.20 percent last year. Most experts agree a slowdown is overdue. The Federal Reserve has raised short-term lending rates by 1.5 percentage points since last June, but long-term rates were slow to follow until recently. Today, the Fed is poised to boost its key federal funds rate by another one-quarter percentage point to 2.75 percent. Higher mortgage rates are expected to follow. Freddie Mac, one of two federal housing-finance agencies, predicts a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.25 percent by year’s end. That should curb the rise in home prices, which surged a spectacular 11.2 percent last year, the fastest rate since 1979, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which regulates Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the nation’s largest supplier of home mortgage funds. Nationally, home prices have risen 8.4 percent annually over the past five years. Economists in the optimist camp think a growing economy, and an influx of new buyers as the “echo boom” generation enters the market, will keep home prices rising, albeit more slowly. They expect mortgages to remain affordable. “We are expecting 6.5 percent by midyear, which is low in a historical context,” said Celia Chen, the director of housing economics for Economy.Com, a business consultancy. “I think for the most part we will see a soft landing nationally. We don’t anticipate a decline in house prices on a national average.” Other economists take a more dour view but stop short of predicting havoc. “I do think it is going to weaken over the next year as interest rates go up. Owning is going to look more expensive relative to renting,” predicted Jan Hatzius, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs investment bank in New York. “The key really is what happens to interest rates.” Pessimists think the nation’s hottest real estate markets are in a bubble driven by unbridled speculative investment. Anecdotal evidence abounds. Outside Washington, young professionals camp out overnight for a chance to bid on new homes. In South Florida, new homes and condos can sell two or three times before they’re even built. In late February, a National Association of Realtors report provided stunning confirmation that speculation in housing is soaring. The group said 23 percent of homes purchased last year were bought as investments or second homes. The report suggested many people are buying homes for quick turnarounds, much as they would plunk money into rising stocks. On March 7, David Berson, the chief economist for Fannie Mae, the nation’s largest supplier of home mortgage funds, observed in his weekly commentary that investor ownership of housing hasn’t been this high since the late 1980s, which led to a crash in housing prices. “Many analysts think that a high investor share in the Northeast and California helped exacerbate the housing downturn that happened during the 1990-1991 recession,” he wrote, noting that home prices stayed depressed well beyond the recession’s end. Berson suggested it could happen again because “the risk of regional home price declines is higher” as so many purchases are by speculators rather than by residents. thestate.com

To: RealMuLan who wrote (26521)	3/29/2005 2:32:52 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

High court hears file-sharing case Tuesday, March 29, 2005 7:20:30 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) - Hollywood and Silicon Valley squared off before the Supreme Court Tuesday, arguing a case that could set the rules for using the Internet to copy songs and movies At issue is whether file-sharing services offered by companies such as Grokster and StreamCast Networks Inc. violate federal copyright laws. The entertainment industry contends that the firms have developed business models centered on facilitating the illegal sharing of copyrighted material. The tech industry contends that Hollywood is exaggerating the extent of illegal sharing, and is seeking the authority to quash technological innovation Grokster and other file-sharing services "deliberately set out to capture a clientele of known [copyright] infringers," Donald B. Verrilli Jr., an attorney for the Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer film studio, told the justices The entertainment industry is appealing a federal judge's 2003 decision, which found that the defendants couldn't be held liable for the actions of end-users who use the file-sharing services to trade illegal copies. The San Francisco-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit agreed last year, warning against the "unwise" expansion of copyright laws Copyright law "does not generally step into the world of product control," Richard Taranto, an attorney for Grokster, told the high court The case hinges on the interpretation of a 1984 Supreme Court decision, in which the high court ruled 5-4 that Sony and other makers of VCRs and video tapes couldn't be held liable for illegal copying of movies, television shows and other programming The entertainment industry contends that the Sony ruling doesn't apply to Grokster. While the majority of VCR owners use the equipment to legally record programs for their own use, the file-sharing companies knowingly profit from users engaged in piracy, the entertainment industry maintains Napster, an earlier file-sharing service, was virtually shut down by court rulings that found the firm was liable for policing content. Questions from the bench The justices peppered lawyers for both sides with questions Justice Stephen Breyer pressed Verrilli on whether he was sure his interpretation of the Sony ruling wouldn't have discouraged the invention of the Ipod or, going back in time, the printing press "The monks had a fit" when Johann Gutenberg developed movable type, Breyer noted Verrilli responded that inventions such as the Ipod are obviously used for lawful purposes a majority of the time Justice Antonin Scalia pressed the attorney on how an inventor would be able to weigh how many potential users would utilize a new product for unlawful uses Verrilli told the justices that the entertainment industry's argument "is not about this technology," but about the firms' business plans. "Some people abuse technology to run businesses that are dedicated to expropriating copyright," he said The justices also pressed Taranto Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg asked if it wasn't "odd" that the Napster case "goes one way in the Ninth Circuit and [then] this case goes another way?" Taranto said the case differed in that Napster was responding to requests for information on the location of specific files, a case of "classic contributory liability." Grokster and StreamCast, in contrast, don't maintain centralized servers, he explained That prompted Justice David Souter to ask whether the defendants weren't engaging in a "classic" case of "willful ignorance." Taranto replied that the structure of the file-sharing service wasn't to dodge responsibility, but to minimize equipment needed to facilitate peer-to-peer file swapping

To: RealMuLan who wrote (26521)	3/29/2005 5:11:33 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

HAHA! I knew it! Yes it was bound to happen, a decade ago those rich multinational CEO's were the ones advising china to peg and how to work things to make profits better with cheap labor, now that china has listend and done so well and making a lot of the profit for themselves, the rich multinationals are mad that china is not listening anymore. Be careful what you wish for, they got it and more. So now they will flex the US gubbment to start us down a blockage of free trade - how can this end my friend? Will the richie CEO's get bush to jump or will he just sell them a lie like is done with dollar strengthening?