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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (41007)3/29/2005 7:41:24 PM
From: xxreno  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206321
 
quotes.tradingcharts.com

The Bid Week Close prices I follow are the NYMEX HH NG numbers. Listening, reading and watching over the years, as well as discussions with analysts at RJF, has led me to believe that this is the primary (60% or more) number used by public E&P's to sell unhedged NA NG for month forward delivery. Of course, the number is adjusted for location and quality by the individual producers and buyers, negotiated on a monthly basis during the final week before the final number.

As I understand, companies who use this method are required to provide the gas at a more or less equal volume during the month. So even the companies who use this as a primary sales tool, do not hedge all of their production since it may vary during the month.

Nevertheless, it has proved to be a fairly reliable tool for modeling the average NG price that a company will earn during a quarter for the occasions when I have ran my own model. As always, if someone has information to add, I would enjoy reading it.

If you wish, I will send you a copy of my Xcel spread sheet if you provide me an address. Good luck.

xxreno