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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (41008)	3/29/2005 6:39:03 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 206322

Ed, you are the numbers man. I don't doubt anything you say regarding taxes and long term gains. I just don't understand the logic in giving back 100% of a break out profit, especially if one is willing to get back in if the price turns around. The first sell signal was at $25.00, the next at $23.00. I have been an advocate of the incremental sell for those who don't wish to sell all of their position. A 1/4 or 1/3 at $25.00, another 1/4 or 1/3 at $23.00 and sell it all before it gets back to even. Successful investing in my opinion has more to do with money management and managing risk than it does taxes. So uncle sam gets an extra 15% of a successful trade. It's better than giving back 100% of the profitable move. ATPG is at $20.00, I can buy back at $21.00, $22.00, etc. and have the insurance of a successful trade. Maybe I don't understand the numbers. I don't do my taxes so I don't know. Giving back 100% of a Stage 2 breakout makes even less sense to me but I realize others have to do what they feel comfortable doing. Like you, I just share my thoughts as we go along. I hope it works out for you, I really do. dabum

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (41008)	3/29/2005 7:38:13 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206322

Ed, I don't know much about ATPG but I do think you might want to review my tax note on BRY: Message 21174511 A couple of matters: it's not TA that predicts tops or gets people out of stocks which are correcting beyond a normal volatility, it's money management. Stops at some sort of "line in the sand" can be determined by support/resistance, moving averages, ATR correction, or they can simply be set by a percentage retracement or dollar amount retracement, without any chart at all. There is a lot of confusion about TA, and I think that DB has done a lot to differentiate the real, valid uses of chart reading (reactive, not predictive) from the goofier manifestations and characterizations of charting stocks. On ATPG, assume two guys, A & B. Both bought ATPG at the same time for $20. A sold on a trailing stop at $25, putting $5 of gain into his brokerage account (to be used to pay taxes or to offset less attractive trades, etc.). A is now sitting on his cash, in a world of certainty, and B is sitting, totally exposed, in a world of uncertainty. If ATPG gives off another buy signal, say at $15, A can now reinvest part of his proceeds into ATPG at a better entry price, and keep $10 in the account ($5 in profit and $5 in extra cash). If indeed ATPG is at $26 at year end, A will have the original 20 + 5, plus the additional $15 + $11. Or a total of $16 of gains on which to pay taxes. B will have $6 of gains. If B holds on and ATPG goes back to $26 by the end of a year, then B will have $6 of gain. But if you look at a chart and pick out (on any basis you like) likely areas where the selling will stop and buyers step back in in force, you are forced to see $18, $15, $10, $7.50 stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G But if ATPG continues to drop, at what point will the pain be so strong that B throws in the towel? And through it all, A can sit quietly, completely neutral on the stock until he gets a proper signal to re-enter. In fact, A may be one of the buyers of B's stock at $15 or $10, unfettered by the psychological burden of a continuing long position in a plunging stock. For what it's worth, to me ATPG is a strongly downtrending stock which is likely to follow Newton's Law for a while (although not without pullbacks). But it is in a strong downtrend and I believe that it won't be putting on the brakes in any significant manner until its price starts with $18.__, and perhaps it will, in this market, blast down through that to $15 with little buyers support. Kb