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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (61365)	4/1/2005 2:29:01 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, <and am holding on to physical gold> I am wondering if we get a blow-off top/double-top in the CRB, confirmed by gold? It is not so far for the CRB, stockcharts.com and gold is so oversold. stockcharts.com while it seems possible, the timing would imply a decoupling from the USD. I personally think we get a double-top here in the CRB over the next few weeks, and that for many commodity names, this will mark the top, because what will follow will be recession, and T-Bill rates will be so attractive that it will mark the end of the commodity cycle and the beginning of the bond cycle. The reason I believe this is what you also said: <I do expect some default risk to be clued into the US debt of all flavors> However, if the US is by some feat able to continue to finance the ballooning debt without having to pay higher rates, then T-Bill yields will not be attractive and the commodity supercycle will continue. I know that the Fabers and Rogers of the world have bet on a commodity supercycle. The question is the duration. I believe the answer lies in T-Bill yields. Japan is not looking healthy. Japan may not be able to participate in keeping yields low enough for the supercycle to continue. China and other nations may, however, particularly considering the performance of the Euro. I know it is not in the interest of the world to have the commodity supercycle end as that will mark the beginning of a global slowdown. Your wager, sir? D