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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bozwood who wrote (29665)	3/30/2005 10:37:26 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

just to say everything that happens in the industry is irrational strikes me as being naive that's not what i said. i said it was irrational to chop NCR by 17% and raise HP by 10% simply because a hatchet man was changing addresses. it is also not naive to simply recognize that tech investors (i didn't say managers or "everything that happens in the industry") are irrational in the aggregate, since their industry is in the aggregate a destroyer of capital, and should therefore trade at a discount to the market instead of a steep premium. what would be naive is to short the hell out of tech simply because it is irrational--after all, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid (although i don't think that's what the inventors of EMH had in mind when they talked about "efficiency"). you can buy circa 1999 bear rugs for cheap because tech shorts thought irrationality was an easy fade.