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Technology Stocks : CDMA, Qualcomm, [Hong Kong, Korea, LA] THE MARKET TEST! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1736)4/8/2005 11:24:37 AM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1819
 
Mobile Technology Scorecard ...

... through Q4 2004, using the subscriber metric.

• After a decline in actual mobile wireless subscriber growth in 2001, followed by further decline in 2002, subscriber growth picked up in 2003, and 2004 was a record year for actual subscriber growth, surpassing both 2000 and 2003.

• 325 million subscribers were added in 2004 bringing the worldwide total to over 1.7 billion subscribers.

• Global subscribers will likely exceed 2 billion by year end or early next year, and will approach 3 billion by the end of the decade.

• GSM at a 28.6% growth rate and 74.9% global technology share is growing just slightly faster than CDMA at a 27.4% growth rate and 14.0% global share and last year for every CDMA sub added, 5.5 GSM subs were added.

• Through December CDMA2000 1xRTT which some call 3G and some call 2.5G, and 3G IS-856 1xEV-DO, accounted for 146.8 million subscribers -- 61% of the total CDMA subscriber base, and 9% of global subscribers.

• Both 3GSM UMTS/WCDMA and IS-856 1xEV-DO passed the 10 million subscriber barrier this fall and totalled ~29million by year end, marking the commencement of a meaningful future transition to cdma based G3G technologies in the decade to follow.

• Analog subscribers continue to rapidly decline and currently account for <1% of the global base and both TDMA and PDC had negative growth this year.

• With the imminent disappearance of AMPS, NMT, US-TDMA, PDC and iDEN which now account for only 12% of worlwide subscribers, mobile wireless telephony divides into two families or ecosystems: 3GPP GSM/3GSM and QUALCOMM controlled 3GPP CDMA.

• This year total CDMA subscribers in the Western Hemisphere surpassed TDMA subscribers to become the dominant technology in the Americas but GSM subscribers exceeded CDMA subscribers in Latin America for the first time and passed TDMA subscribers in North America. Once a GSM wasteland, GSM is now deployed or planned in every country in the Americas with 167 operators here and at current rate GSM could reach parity with CDMA by 2007 in the Americas.

The source for all CDMA (cdmaOne, cdma2000, IS-856) subscriber detail in the compilation below is CDG. The source for subscriber data for all other technologies including UMTS/WCDMA (3GSM) is the EMC Cellular database (3GAmericas update). 

A. Q4 2004 Subscriber Net Adds (millions) by Digital Technology
                                                                     ·
GSM        89.41m      87.1%
3GSM        5.32m       5.2%
CDMA       13.33m      13.0%
iDEN         .85m       0.8%
PDC/TDMA   -6.42m      -6.2%
          --------
          102.64 million digital subscriber net adds in Q3 2004
                                                                     ·
B. CY2004 Twelve Month Subscriber Growth by Technology

                               Current    1 Year    % of 04     YoY
          Dec-03     Dec-04    Share %   Net Adds   Net Adds   Growth
         ========   ========   =======   ========   ========   ======
GSM        991.7m  1,275.3m     74.4%     283.6m      84.9%     28.6%
3GSM         2.7m     16.6m      1.0%      13.9m       4.2%    514.8%
CDMA       188.6m    240.2m     14.0%      51.6m      15.5%     27.4%
TDMA       109.1m     94.2m      5.5%     -14.9m      -4.5%    -13.7%
PDC         61.8m     57.9m      3.5%      -3.9m      -1.2%     -6.3%
iDEN        16.5m     20.1m      1.2%       3.6m       1.1%     21.8%
Analog      19.3m     10.1m      0.6%      -9.2m      -2.8%    -47.7%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total    1,389.7m   1,714.4m    100.0%     324.7m    100.0%     23.4%
Digital  1,370.4m   1,704.3m       -       333.9m       -       24.4%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total GSM/3GSM      1,291.9m    75.4%      297.5m      91.6%    29.9%
Total 'cdma' ¹        256.8m    15.0%       65.5m      20.2%    34.2%
Total 'Other'²        198.9m    11.6%      -22.0m       --     -10.6%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
¹ 'cdma' = cdmaOne, cdma2000, IS-856/1xEV-DO, as well as UMTS/WCDMA
² 'Other' = TDMA, PDC, iDEN, and various Analog (AMPS and NMT)
                                                                     ·
C. Global Digital Subscriber Growth by Technology: The 1st 8 Years
                                                                     ·
       Dec-92  Dec-93  Dec-94  Dec-95  Dec-96  Dec-97  Dec-98  Dec-99
       ======  ======  ======  ======  ======  ======  ======  ======
GSM      0.2m   1.4m    5.0m    13.0m   32.8m   71.1m  138.4m  258.4m
CDMA     0.0    0.0     0.0      0.0     1.0m    7.8m   23.0m   50.1m
TDMA     0.0    0.0     0.1m     0.7m    2.6m    6.3m   15.9m   38.0m
PDC      0.0    0.0     0.5m     3.3m   13.9m   26.8m   38.1m   44.8m
iDEN     0.0    0.0     0.0      0.0     0.3m    1.4m    3.1m    5.1m
         ----   ----    ----    -----   -----  ------  ------  ------
Total    0.2m   1.4m    5.6m    17.0m   50.8m  113.4m  218.6m  396.3m
         ----   ----    ----    -----   -----  ------  ------  ------
Adds     0.2m   1.2m    4.2m    11.4m   39.4m   62.6m  105.2m  177.7m
                                                                     ·
D. Global Digital Subscriber Growth by Technology: The Last 6 Years
                                                                     ·
       Dec-99    Dec-00    Dec-01     Dec-02      Dec-03      Dec-04
       ======    ======    ======     ======      ======     ========
GSM    258.4m    456.1m    626.2m     790.6m      991.8m     1,275.3m
3GSM     0.0       0.0       0.0        0.2m        2.7m        16.6m
CDMA    50.1m     80.4m    111.4m     146.7m      188.6m       240.2m
TDMA    38.0m     67.6m     94.1m     108.1m      109.7m        94.2m
PDC     44.8m     50.8m     56.8m      60.1m       61.8m        57.9m
iDEN     5.1m      8.2m     11.1m      13.6m       16.5m        20.1m
       ------    ------    ------    -------    --------     --------
Total  396.3m    663.2m    899.7m    1,119.0m   1,371.2m     1,704.3m
       ------    ------    ------    -------    --------     --------
Adds   177.7m    266.9m    236.5m      219.3m     252.2m       288.0m
                                                                     ·
E. Total Global Mobile Wireless Subscriber Growth: The Last 6 Years
                                                                     ·
         Dec-99    Dec-00    Dec-01    Dec-02     Dec-03      Dec-04E
         ======    ======    ======    ========   ========    ========
Digital  396.3m    663.2m    899.7m    1,119.0m   1,371.2m    1,669.2m
Analog    94.7m     68.0m     43.6m       29.3m      19.7m       10.1m
         ------    ------    ------    --------   --------    --------
Total    491.0m    731.2m    943.3m    1,148.3m   1,390.9m    1,714.4m
         ------    ------    ------    --------   --------    --------
Net Adds 177.0m    240.2m    212.1m      205.0m     242.6m      324.7m
                                                                     ·
F. 5 Year Relative Market Share Growth by Key Technology Platform
                                                                     ·
                        CDMA Market Share         GSM Market Share
                     % of all  % of digital    % of all  % of digital
                     --------  ------------    --------  ------------
Q4 2004 End            14.0%      14.1%           74.4%      74.8%
04 2003 End            13.8%      14.0%           72.3%      73.4%
Q4 2002 End            13.1%      13.5%           70.7%      72.6%
Q4 2001 End            12.4%      13.0%           69.6%      73.1%
Q4 2000 End            11.0%      12.1%           62.2%      68.6%
Q4 1999 End            10.2%      12.6%           52.6%      65.2%
                     --------   ---------       ---------   --------
5 Yr Share Increase: 3.8% pts   1.5% pts        21.8% pts   9.6% pts

- eriQ -


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