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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (29731)	3/31/2005 12:08:36 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish, your blog is so depressing. -ng-

To: mishedlo who wrote (29731)	3/31/2005 12:55:27 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Unfortunately, the REAL Tsunami Wave of Foreclosures has not even started. Rising property values in California, Florida and other places have kept (for now) the consumer buoyant It seems pretty obvious to me by now the only thing stopping new foreclosures from skyrocketing everywhere is continued home appreciation. Or does anyone have evidence of much higher new foreclosure filings in any of the bubble markets that are still appreciating. Mish, in Florida today I did some spot checking and still see very low new foreclosure filings. Broward County (almost 2M people) foreclosures down 25% year to date from 2002 top. Bubble mania still in bloom here.

To: mishedlo who wrote (29731)	3/31/2005 6:20:47 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 110194

Telling it like it is re: the housing bubble: The looming debacle here could dwarf the 1980s S&L crisis which required a huge taxpayer bailout.

To: mishedlo who wrote (29731)	3/31/2005 10:46:48 AM
From: Gemlaoshi	Respond to of 110194

Unfortunately, the REAL Tsunami Wave of Foreclosures has not even started. Mish, I have been an investor in distressed properties in the Southeast since about 1980, so here is my read on the situation, FWIW. Most of the recent increase in foreclosures is concentrated in areas with large military populations (Fort Benning, Fort Campbell, Fort Bragg, etc.), but there has not been a significant increase in the general population. For example, I know of at least 75-100 foreclosures in Clarksville, TN (Fort Campbell, 60 miles from Nashville. The Nashville market remains strong, but is not in a bubble. It is still very early in the cycle to get heavily involved in these properties. There is very little equity in the properties, so most of the REO institutions are listing the properties at, or near, market price. Only after the number of properties increases to the point where the bank's (or mortgage holder's) losses threaten their shareholder equity ratios, will they start to dump properties at any price. Cash will then be king, and I will be like a kid in a candy store!! Due to the mortgage (or trust deed) foreclosure process, there is a lag of 3-6 months, and the most opportune time will be 3-6 months after the general market noses over into general decline. Dave