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Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (24913)	3/31/2005 4:20:30 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 60908

I wouldn't rule it out entirely....I think it'll depend on how rapid the real estate debt deflation occurs and how extreme the government's reaction to it will be. If it's very fast and the Fed sits on their hands, then gold could get swept away in the Tsunami, at least for awhile.

To: nspolar who wrote (24913)	3/31/2005 4:20:34 PM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60908

Nice reverse psychology piece

To: nspolar who wrote (24913)	3/31/2005 7:04:09 PM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60908

<<But the trend in the dollar has changed. We are in the midst of a rebound in the US dollar>> This guy must have a different view on what a trend is than i have. To talk about this before it even breaks the 200-day is just dumb. Buck is overbought on many indicators already and looks to go lower. stockcharts.com[p,a]dicayyay[df][pb50!b200!i][vc60][iUb5!Lp14,3,3!La12,26,9!Lb14]&pref=G <<After the article, Treasury Secretary Snow and a crowd of others came out and basically said the dollar did what 'we' needed it to do and the plunge is over. Technically speaking this spurred the run through critical resistance at 8485 and the market ultimately leveled off in the mid-85 area, only to test the lows again. The recent support, which incidentally was above the double bottom support, shows the biggest technical sign of all - the market was not willing to set fresh lows. So a technical analyst would look at this and make one of two conclusions - we are setting a narrowing channel (long term pennant) or the market developed bottom support and is heading higher. Either way, the dollar has seen its lows for a while,>> Why? This could just be a simple 3 wave correction high before new lows are set. The fact that stuff like this is written all over the place now makes it more likely that we see the 70s on the $DXY before any kind of real rally is possible. That would tie in with $480+ POG for the top of this run. <<The bottom line is a move to 360 doesn't change the long term bullishness of the market. In fact it's a blip on the screen if you a true gold bull. If the dollar is even in a dead cat bounce it still enough to see that type of retracment.>> Agreed <<Face it. The dollar is set to move higher, and metals are long overdue for a small spec shakeout.>. The small specs in the metal markets have been killed in both the metal and the stocks. Either junior golds move higher or are flat while gold comes down or gold is not going down.

To: nspolar who wrote (24913)	3/31/2005 9:53:33 PM
From: pogbull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60908

Interesting Article investorshub.com 247profits e-Dispatch. If you’ve been following the e-Dispatch and my Taipan editorials over the last few months, you know that there are three major macroeconomic trends that we believe will shape the next five years. First, we believe we’re in the launching phase of what Harry S. Dent, Jr., calls The Next Great Bubble Market… a decennial continuation of wave-based market cycles that will carry the US indices to new all-time highs by 2009. Second, we have come to see Europe, especially the European Union, as an economic and political entity that despite its ambition to grow has already passed the apex of its development… a trend rooted in demographic and cultural shifts. Third, we believe that China is heading toward an economic crash that could trigger a deep global recession after 2009 - a recession that will change the economic balance of power forever and last at last a decade or longer. *There are indications that China’s collapse could be triggered by a combination of factors similar to those responsible for turning the Japanese bubble boom of the late 1980’s into a shambles. Corrupt, inefficient and protected banks. And rampant real-estate speculation. Today’s news reinforced the virulence of both factors: the State Council, China’s cabinet, ordered a clampdown on real-estate speculation: “Excessive growth in housing prices has directly undermined the ability of city residents to improve their living standards, affected financial and social stability, and even influenced the health of the national economy,” a document distributed by the government read. Despite higher minimum interest rates and higher down payments, housing prices in Shanghai increased nearly 20% last year. Overall, Chinese property prices rose 10.8% in the last quarter of 2004 alone, up from 8.6% gains in the previous quarter. Investment in real estate in the first two months of 2005 has jumped 27%… Beijing is attempting to slow economic growth to 8% in 2005, from 9.5% last year, mainly by putting restrictions on property investment and other industries. And it’s calling on banks and local governments to step in. Shanghai banks have agreed to stop issuing loans for houses sold within a year of purchase, while the city government has imposed a 5.6% capital gains tax on such sales. The question remains how successful these measures will be: Thanks to corrupt banking and government officials, China is already having problems with the influx of “mislabeled” foreign speculative capital. And the clock is ticking for compliance of state-owned Chinese banks with government directives. Starting January 1, 2006, China has to open up to foreign banks competing for the domestic market to fulfill its commitment to the WTO. *Meanwhile, the bureaucrats at the European Parliament are breaking out their toolboxes to pound yet another nail into the union’s growth prospects. They have already given initial backing to higher spending in the EU’s 2007-2013 budget. The Commission proposed increasing outlays to 1.14% of GDP - that’s about 930 billion euros or US$1.2 trillion. Germany, Britain, and France want the budget capped at 1% of GDP or 815 million euros, given that the three biggest spenders on the EU’s entitlement programs have trouble keeping their own debt levels in check. Germany in particular has problems paying to renovate other countries’ economies, as it is still stuck with the stream of bills associated with integrating communist East Germany back in 1990. This should be interesting: Will the net gainers from EU largesse be able to outmaneuver the net payers into further, potentially bottomless commitments? Or will a realistic assessment of what is economically possible prevail… to the detriment of the EU’s attractiveness to others looking for a sugar daddy?