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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (61470)	4/2/2005 3:12:08 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

I bought some puts on AIG thursday - now I wish I had bought more....down 8% today. Saw an article by Jim Cramer calling AIG the new Enron.... I am perplexed by energy prices, especially oil. I am deeply suspicious of the "high oil price is a strategic move against China" business. Sounds like someone screwed up (Iraq invasion ? no light truck gas mileage standards ?) and they are now saying "I meant to do that..." It's like some political flak is spinning an excuse to cover for the economy tanking because of high energy prices.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (61470)	4/2/2005 5:15:54 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, Lets say you knew absolutely, without shred of a doubt, that liquidity was leaving the system and would continue to do so, although the velocity and acceleration were unknown and it could take awhile before a hiss became a roar. Against this backdrop, you can place one bet. One huge bet, to capitalize on liquidity leaving the system. What would that one bet be? (It can be a sector, not a company) Which sector will be hit the most? I know there is so much focus on the homies, but recently there was more money to be made in shortng/puts on GM and Ford. Maybe the homies will be the last sector to fall? Maybe before the homies fall, the: -insurance companies -electronics companies -retailers -financial sector and others are actually weaker than the homies and will fall first? After seeing where the weakness has been exposed earliest(GM, FNM, MBIA) I am starting to think of sectors other than housing. Cheers, D