Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21020)	4/3/2005 7:44:55 PM
From: muwis123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78715

Paul - Could you paste a copy of the Barron's article on MBI? It's been on my radar recently. MBI looks cheap at 0.78 times its adjusted book value. I think the lowest it has ever traded was 0.7 times when Gotham Partners came out with that negative report a couple of years ago. However, I do think the stock will remain volatile with headline risk relating to the SEC and Spitzer investigations. On top of that, the outlook for bond insurers aren't that great with high interest rates dampening debt issuance and increasing price competition from new entrants. I like MBI's mgt team. They are disciplined and conservative, exactly what I want in an insurance company. If they wanted to please the Street in the sort term, they could easily increase the amount of premiums they write by loosening their underwriting standard or lower its prices. Both of which they refused to do. The chance of them losing their AAA rating like AIG is slim. They work closely with all the rating agencies. The agencies constantly monitor their capital levels and know exactly what MBI is doing everyday. I'm looking to get into the stock below $48 if it ever gets there.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21020)	4/3/2005 9:01:34 PM
From: doug5y	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78715

According to Third Avenue Funds ( Whitman, et al ) latest fund holder letter, MBIA is # 9 in their list of top 10 Holdings. Whitman's motto is "safe and cheap". I can't wait to see next Q's letter, to see how much he still has ( if any ). thirdavenuefunds.com ( bottom of page 1 ) FWIW Disclaimer, I'm long MBI.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21020)	9/10/2005 6:01:33 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78715

I lost confidence with several reinsurers. They've dropped on Katrina, but have come back a bit Friday, possibly because rating agency Fitch said the hurricane is not likely to change its opinion of these companies. "Fitch said financial guarantors have experienced few, if any, claims and virtually no losses net of recovery, resulting from most previous natural disasters in the U.S." Katrina though, is not most natural disasters. I leave it to tougher players to hold these reinsurers - I closed my positions in Ambac (ABK), Pxre (PXT), and have cut my Radian (RDN) to a stub.