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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (23315)	4/4/2005 11:05:41 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 109448

Fannie Mae / FNM ....fingers in the dike cant stop the meltdown... People need to re-focus on the Derivatives Bubble that has done nothing but exponentially rise since LTCM's meltdown. Fannie Mae, AIG showing what's to come. Remember when LTCM cracked....everything went down. As Roebear pointed out - even PM stocks didn't do particularly well... a core position is always warranted, but I wouldn't particularly load up on PM's into this expectation. Short the broad market - particularly levered financials, subprimes, homebuilders etc will work best imo. Oil won't be a place to hide. Oil Prices are clearly being manipulated. You either believe it and see it or you don't. The way to play the potential of a temporary (unsustainable) manipulated upside spike to Crude is via Calls & LEAP Calls... I'd be taking profits and selling common shares into EVERY upside Oilpatch Rally (see Merrills call today) and shorting into each pullback... then creating an Options straddle....buying some calls on pullbacks and puts on rally's. Oil will ultimately see either +$70, or -$40...play that straddle. Fundamentals support a $25/$35 bottom and upside spike's will be via "intervention" and will be shorting opps. Remember the last Asian Contagion took 6 Million BPD out of demand...and the USA, China and other Countries have been stratetically stockpiling Crude outside of public SPR stats...skewing demand to the upside. Time to be very light on one's feet here. good luck all