Well, Zero-zero Dude,
Here is the entire text of what I wrote:
<<I follow this thread and DB's valuable commentaries. In some ways his detailed commentaries remind me of hearing diagnosis by the medical community. It is measured, wise and to the point, but not necessarily written in everyday language. I have been discussing stocks with DB for about 8 years now, and his language is not mysterious or coded, to me. However, when I read some of the comments here, I cannot fail to believe that it represents a code which is apparently hard to crack.
Let me review 2 charts in every day language. Here is TKLC:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb20!b40!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc...
This is the very definition of a stock in a downtrend. Can you, with TA, or moonphases, or magic dust, predict the end of a downtrend with greater chances than simply rolling the dice? No. Always assume that Newtonian physics, although under attack by the Quantum guys, still applies in markets. A body in motion stays in motion; that is the way to play any stock,
index, or other financial instrument.
Here is an instrument in an uptrend, OIH:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb20!b40!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc2...
Calling the top, or a topping pattern, in the OIH on this chart is, if not financial suicide, then financial gambling at the edge. Doing this is actually lining up the probabilities against you.
Kb>>
Message 21107949
As for telling this group "why" a stock went up, I think anyone with a pulse can look at this chart and see a stock in a downtrend. It didn't go "up," Dude. It paused and made a slight correction and then went SIDEWAYS. Now it is continuing with its trend, which, if you look, is still DOWN. If you look back at the chart you will see that the stock has been doing this, plunging, pausing, plunging, pausing, since December. I noted, in language as clear as could be, the dangers of predicting bottoms in stocks (that would be what a 500 year old tree is, right?) which are not making bottoms:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb20!b40!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G
For anyone out there in DB's audience who was gullible enough to think you actually had a clue, they might have committed capital on the long side to your TKLC thinking a bottom had been correctly predicted. You can't predict anything, TA predicts nothing.
Multiple predictions of tops and bottoms, like wearing a wristwatch which is stopped, will eventually seem to be correct (in the case of a watch, twice a day, but only twice a day). OIH has now corrected more sharply into a chop, indecision--until it makes some movement one way or another, it is an excellent area to lose money in. It could break up from here (the odds, based on Friday's close, seem to favor that slightly), break back down into the chop, or break down hard through the chop into a downtrend which would then offer significant profits to the downside. Predicting where it will go is a mug's game, reacting to its signals as they occur is a professional trader's edge.
Again, reread what I wrote. Slowly. Move your lips if you must. The information on the charts will eventually indicate when a trend has ended and whether or not it is time to cautiously commit funds in a new direction. Calling tops and bottoms is for the ego, and it is an excellent way to separate oneself from the capital in one's account. I realize, Dude, based on your writings, that you probably can't comprehend these statements, but as I said, these are really meant, like socratic dialogues, not for your benefit, but for the benefit of others who might like to work through the valuable information here to try to find a methodology which will lead to repeatable, winning trades.
(Btw I don't mind "engaging" a little in a rational debate on these issues, why is it that they seem to touch your hot buttons so easily? Dude?)
You seem to avoid the basic question, though. Is the 500 year old tree still standing (as you have said) is TKLC still a buy?
For me I see nothing different than I saw 16 trading days ago: a stock in a downtrend likely to continue in a downtrend until something happens that will indicate the sellers are gone and buyers are all that's left. Our next range is now 12.50 to 16.00, with a downward bias, until the charts indicate something new.
I mean all this to be constructive, of course.
Kb |
