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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spreck who wrote (7314)	4/4/2005 1:10:00 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Hi Spreck, I posted something about AIG on Friday: Message 21188844 On an intraday basis, AIG is oversold, and Williams is signaling an early but unconfirmed buy signal. 139.142.147.22 As you can see, there was a tremendous surge of supportive volume at the low point of the day, and more supportive volume towards the close, as AIG drifted back towards the low of the day. So, there will probably be a bit of dead cat bounce after some initial selling early in the session on Monday. The huge volume surge at the low of the day on Friday is particularly encouraging there, because it indicates buyers stepping up to the plate in a show of force, and in fact that stopped AIG's decline for the rest of the session. Still, this is a risky trade, because you are trading against both the long-term and medium-term trends. You will have to be very nimble, and watch this thing. If I were taking a long position, I would look to enter when the stochastic signals, and when the intraday moving average (40 ema on a 5 min chart) is taken out (both criteria). I would keep a tight stop just under the low of the session or the bottom on Friday (whichever is lowest). I would also take partial profits sooner rather than later, and I wouldn't get greedy with the rest (i.e., keep the stop tight and adjust frequently upwards, never downwards). Personally, I don't daytrade much anymore. So I would rather look to short AIG when it rallies into resistance. At this point, resistance is not as well defined as I would prefer. It is exceedingly important to note that AIG is clearly a failed stock that is now in a long-term downtrend. AIG is dead money for a very long time (year or more). stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60]&pref=G Note the convincing failure at the 200 sma and the confirmation and bear cross. There was a rally to fill the gap, followed by a bull trap above the 200 sma, which was AIG's last gasp (this is very unusual for a stock that has been charbroiled like AIG was in October; rarely will such a stock rally to that extent after such a dramatic meltdown). Note also how sharp the fall was compared to the rally above the 200 sma. This is typical for a failed stock: volatility to the downside is much greater than volatility to the upside, which is one of the factors that makes long positions in relief rallies for downtrending stocks a sucker's game. So, even though a dead cat bounce is likely here, I would much rather be looking for a short entry than a long entry in AIG. Shorts have the trend as their friend, and can afford to be patient. Longs better be constantly looking over their shoulder and listening for the other shoe to drop. Also, I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see more rally-killing bad news with AIG, just like we saw with BIIB and ELN recently. ....all IMHO, of course. T

To: Spreck who wrote (7314)	4/4/2005 6:19:02 AM
From: Vendit™	Respond to of 8752

AIG is one of the companies that I happen to be keeping up with the funny-mentals on. The largest insurer in the U.S. is quickly going into the toilet because of their shady off-shore accounting in Bermuda owned companies. AIG is going to have to make a 3-billion dollar (cough) adjustment to their book keeping which will very likely land several dozen of their top executives in jail and many of their business partners in jail. (Brokers who took pay-offs) The SEC is hot on their tail and it looks like Mr. Spitzer is going to make an example out of this arrogant company for thumbing its nose at him early on during his investigation. The chart shows a 10% drop in price on Friday as the SEC continued to hand out subpoenas. 139.142.147.218 The lower indicators suggest a breach of $50 is imminent. The stock has lost over 35% of its value since January 1st. This SEC investigation is just beginning. Reid