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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (30007)	4/4/2005 11:51:10 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Prices might drop fastest in the areas of biggest supply. On that basis the Condo market in Florida and condos in general might be hardest hit. Condos are typically last to go up and first to come down (at least that is how I see it) Mish

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (30007)	4/4/2005 11:57:22 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Maybe home prices will drop faster than I expect. That might be especially true on the coasts - I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10%-15% drop very quickly and then a normal slow deflate. My view of a slow drop in prices, and a large drop in transaction volumes, is based on previous RE bubbles and the market friction in housing. Will the speculators (23% of nation, not just bubble markets!) make the prices fall quicker? Maybe. Heck, I'm still trying to convince a number of economists that there is a bubble!

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (30007)	4/4/2005 12:43:55 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

Find the most oversupplied and overvalued property type for the answer, which I expect will take a huge drop farely rapidly and be unprecedented in modern times. Las Vegas second home market and those high end urban condos in San Diego, Miami and probably just about every growing major market in this country by now ripe for a big fall. Out of the way expensive vacation homes far from urban employment areas might also take a big hit such as in Aspen and Naples. Once the public starts panicking then the primary home market in the coastal bubble markets start grinding down for a period that might last 5-7 years that should be very similar to 1990-96.