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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (41348)	4/4/2005 1:00:45 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 206114

Commander, The rational bearish case on these stocks (not on oil, not because of fundamentals, tanker rates, Venezuela, but just on these stocks you name via their charts, all on the daily bars) is certainly available below. The problem with stories on stocks (aka "fundamentals") is that you can have so many stories each of them convincing, and either scary or inspiring. Sidebar: I have heard a number of people in the last week wanting to get into AIG (where there existed, until a few trading days ago, 2 convincing stories: fundamental uncertainty and fundamental value; we can see now which "story" won), a stock whose technical damage has been severe to say the least. Those who tried to anticipate a bottom to AIG paid for their foray into bottom-calling. I always try to stay neutral and at a distance on these things, neither bull nor bear, at least not a priori: KCS--downtrend (lower highs, lower lows since early March), today's bar is reversing at the top of a linear regression line. Currently bearish; next (cautiously) bullish signal will be either a taking out of the last high on a daily bar ($16.55 on 3/21) or some other formation in the next few days that, while not taking out that bar on the way up, will create a higher low and a breakout from there. Until then, play the trends, not the countertrends, on trending stocks. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb20!b40!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc..]&pref=G PQUE--downtrend. See above. PCZ--neutral. This will signal a buy if it rises above $60.90 (and closes there), a short if it trades below 59.00 EGY--downtrend. Short below 4.00 (although query whether it makes much sense to short a $4.00 stock with small volume), buy with a hard stop if it can close above 4.30. A better looking stock I've posted about before is EOG. Use the same analysis above and see a strong stock, higher highs, higher lows, retracements to significant moving averages seem to occur almost with resentment. This stock apparently likes to run. Today it has probed new ground and come back: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb20!b40!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc..]&pref=G Kb

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (41348)	4/4/2005 1:04:01 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206114

As we all know the market is looking forward and many people, including myself, believe that current oil and NG prices will either bring on new supplies or kill demand or both. I can't see any reason to buy stocks, including oil and oil service stocks. Higher oil prices are now showing up in the inflation numbers and the fed will most likely continue to raise rates to both reign in inflation and attract foreign capital to finance the budget deficit. Lots of red flags showing up for an international economic slow down. China showing signs of problems on the horizon. Cheap and uncollectible bank loans were the driving force in China and it can't go on forever. Record high unemployment in Germany, auto sales at a 24 year in Europe, higher inflation, higher interest rates, higher energy costs, slower growth, etc etc.......all bad for the market. Cash is nice!!