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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (154849)	4/4/2005 2:41:03 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Petz, do you realize that AMD guided CPU revs as "flat to slightly down", and that "slightly" has amounted to 2% the past 2 times it has been used to qualify revenue changes? And that Rivet reaffirmed CPG guidance at the end of Feb? And that Flash revenue guidance was simply "down" ? I think they will sacrifice flash revs to contain flash losses if need be... so I wouldn't be surprised with 10-15% revenue decline in flash, but CPG I would think would be, say, 1-2% down, or about $728M. I guess I don't see why you have CPG revs down more than Flash, when guidance is much the opposite...

To: Petz who wrote (154849)	4/4/2005 7:28:10 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

"AMD revenue $1,210 (-4.3%) (Yahoo consensus $1,210)" Way too low! Just as AMD guided too high in Q4, AMD has guided too low in Q1. (And yes I heard Bob's guidance, but what I heard was that CPG was a little stronger than expected, but he added, he's not raising guidance though (for fear of getting burned again as in Q4).) Since then, AMD's CPG division has continued to perform strongly with the additional SUNW and HP wins. Not sure if Turions and DC's will impact Q1, but if so, I'm looking for a very positive surprise in Q1. All in all, better than expected Q1 and very positive Q2 guidance. (For the life of me, I don't know why AMD isn't trading well into the $20's given all the positive Q1 news. Maybe I'll have to wait for Apr 14 for the price spike.)

To: Petz who wrote (154849)	4/13/2005 10:15:39 AM
From: Rink	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Petz, that was quite a revision in earnings contest. AMD revenue $1,210 (-4.3%) (Yahoo consensus $1,210), became 1235 CPU revenue $690 (-5.5%), became: 745 Flash revenue $485 (-3.8%), became 455 EPS $0.03 (Yahoo consensus $0.03), became 0.06 Stock price $17.47 Was that because of the Taiwan mobo shipment report, and the mention that AMD partly caused the shipment growth? I sincerely hope you are right. My estimates are right in between your previous and current estimates (cpu: 720, flash: 470). BTW, indirectly related to this, what do you think is the time difference between shipment and revenue for cpu's? Regards, Rink