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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (107646)	4/4/2005 2:51:33 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793913

In the interim from a year ago, we have had a phenomenally successful election, a turnover of sovereingty, increasing signs that the Sunnis are coming into the governmental fold, a hellacious reduction in attacks and deaths, a benign spillover benefit into Lebanon, and Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. Some quick comments. On the success of the election. We genuinely don't know. That it happened is certainly a success. But the best measure of its success are the consequences. Those are still not knowable. The absence of the Sunnis in the election underlines the potential for severe religious conflict. The difficulties getting a new government in place, apparently, underlines the difficult if not impossible negotiations with Kurds, particularly over Kirkuk. The attacks on Shias in and around Kirkuk and the lack of Shia response show that any serious slow down in progress toward a government may well bring the Shias into the streets. We still don't have a turnover of sovereignty. So long as we have as many troops there as we do; so long as the Iraq army and police can't effectively provide security without US troops; that's how long it will take. Sovreignty in my book is not a legal concept, it's the ability to provide security for the nation. As for Sunnis coming into the government, the evidence is less than slim. The one Sunni taking the leadership post is anathema to the Sunnis who are staying out. He looks more like either Shia plant or Allawi's guy. On the "hellacious" reduction in attacks and deaths, we'll have to wait and see. I've seen some monthly statistics that suggest they've gone sideways. But none that they've seriously gone down. On the Lebanon stuff, you may have a point. I simply don't know enough to know one way or the other. Save that the Bush administration is much too hasty to try to claim credit for good things and hides from responsibility for the not-so-good things.