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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (107731)	4/5/2005 10:38:40 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793928

So on the casualties side, I think they haven't gone down. Fatalities have clearly trended down as the insurgency fizzles. The figures on the wounded, from your source, show this trend even more explicitly: Period Wnd-RTD Wounded 19-Mar-03 thru 03-Apr-03 115 426 04-Apr-03 thru 02-Apr-04 963 1484 03-Apr-04 thru 09-Apr-04 59 222 10-Apr-04 thru 16-Apr-04 119 242 17-Apr-04 thru 23-Apr-04 138 96 24-Apr-04 thru 03-May-04 193 76 04-May-04 thru 11-May-04 82 116 12-May-04 thru 18-May-04 100 93 19-May-04 thru 24-May-04 73 85 25-May-04 thru 31-May-04 86 114 01-Jun-04 thru 09-Jun-04 121 10 10-Jun-04 thru 16-Jun-04 71 54 17-Jun-04 thru 22-Jun-04 79 54 23-Jun-04 thru 29-Jun-04 64 59 30-Jun-04 thru 20-Jul-04 209 201 21-Jul-04 thru 03-Aug-04 183 100 04-Aug-04 thru 11-Aug-04 56 133 12-Aug-04 thru 17-Aug-04 129 92 18-Aug-04 thru 24-Aug-04 152 41 25-Aug-04 thru 31-Aug-04 84 142 01-Sep-04 thru 07-Sep-04 114 -4 08-Sep-04 thru 14-Sep-04 81 138 15-Sep-04 thru 21-Sep-04 116 52 22-Sep-04 thru 28-Sep-04 62 57 29-Sep-04 thru 05-Oct-04 87 111 06-Oct-04 thru 12-Oct-04 86 46 13-Oct-04 thru 19-Oct-04 90 64 20-Oct-04 thru 26-Oct-04 77 57 27-Oct-04 thru 03-Nov-04 60 77 04-Nov-04 thru 09-Nov-04 83 88 10-Nov-04 thru 16-Nov-04 120 378 17-Nov-04 thru 23-Nov-04 267 103 24-Nov-04 thru 30-Nov-04 184 42 01-Dec-04 thru 07-Dec-04 62 152 08-Dec-04 thru 14-Dec-04 50 28 15-Dec-04 thru 22-Dec-04 65 72 23-Dec-04 thru 04-Jan-05 176 95 05-Jan-05 thru 11-Jan-05 67 53 12-Jan-05 thru 18-Jan-05 36 94 19-Jan-05 thru 25-Jan-05 106 14 26-Jan-05 thru 01-Feb-05 86 62 02-Feb-05 thru 08-Feb-05 39 62 09-Feb-05 thru 15-Feb-05 53 44 16-Feb-05 thru 22-Feb-05 69 32 23-Feb-05 thru 01-Mar-05 75 76 02-Mar-05 thru 08-Mar-05 31 34 09-Mar-05 thru 14-Mar-05 55 4 15-Mar-05 thru 22-Mar-05 83 43 23-Mar-05 thru 29-Mar-05 54 44 Total 5610 5958 But the 1/04 to 1/05 goes from 52 to 127 and the 2/04 to 2/05 casualties go from 23 to 60. One doesn't look at month to month comparisons, but at trends. The 1/05 figures were for the pre-election violence. The 1/04 figures do not show the strength of the insurgency which was exhibited later in 2004, not at its beginning. The trend was this: lots of violence during 2004, peaking in 1/05 immediately before the election. After that, it has trended down, as reflected in both the fatality and the wounded statistics from your own source. Your method--comparing 1/04 to 1/05, then making a judgment--is not only simplistic but palpably wrong. You of course loaded the highest and the lowest months interms of casualties but didn't bother to to look at a trend. Your analysis is not worth much if you don't acknowlege that for obvious reasons--the failed attempt to derail the election-- violence was extremely high in 1/05. But in that fact lies another matter you fail to recognize. Violence was as extreme in 1/05 as it has ever been in Iraq yet it did not prevent a huge number of Iraqis--more in percentage terms than vote in our own elections--from making the election a huge success.