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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sirius_Rich who wrote (7350)	4/5/2005 6:49:18 AM
From: Vendit™	Respond to of 8752

We should also use what is in our own back yard and be less dependent on third world nation's supplies.

To: Sirius_Rich who wrote (7350)	4/5/2005 9:25:26 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8752

It's easy to blame OPEC.... after all, they are mostly Arab, and produce a good portion of the world's oil, and try (rather unsuccessfully) to fix prices. But if OPEC disbanded tomorrow, little would change. The fundamental problem is that oil demand is accelerating, and oil production is not. And a particularly exacerbating factor is that refining capacity has stagnated, and sometimes decreased. Pumping more oil is not the answer for several reasons. First, world refining is within 90%+ of peak capacity, probably closer to 100%. Nobody seems to want to build more refining capacity, and certainly in the U.S. there is a very clear "put a refinery anywhere you like, just make sure it's nowhere near my backyard" mentality that is ubiquitous. Second, demand continues to increase, and in less than half a century there will likely be little oil left, and what remains will be prohibitively priced. It is just flat irresponsible to wait 50 years to proceed towards a petroleum-free economy that will be forced upon the world whether we choose to see it coming or not. If you think about it, this might be a golden economic opportunity in many ways. We are in a position where we might be able to switch much faster to a petroleum-free economy. If we develop that technology sufficiently, the entire developed world will be our customers, because they are in the same boat as we are. Further, many nations will do nothing to prepare, so if we ARE prepared, that puts us in a superior economic position, since economies that remain petroleum-dependent will suffer and be at a big disadvantage. Pumping reserves will solve the problem in the very short term only, and will only lower the price of oil for a while (less than a year or two, IMHO). Then, we will be right back where we are today. What are we gonna do, just blame OPEC for the next 50 years? Or face facts and move realistically with real capital backing towards developing a viable economy that is not choke-chained to oil? Lip service and relatively pathetic little investments of capital that demonstrate little real commitment are a joke and will not allow us to achieve the goal. Anything else is a head-in-the-sand approach. ....all IMHO, of course. T