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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (26925)	4/6/2005 3:01:20 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Grain Report Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Tuesday, April 05,2005 and the markets are closed. CORN: We started the week with yesterday’s Monday weekly export inspection report showing 30.8 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export about unchanged from the week prior and a year ago and our four week average of 29.7. Year to date inspections are 1 b.b. versus 1.105. It is certainly not a bullish demand signal as we are fat with a bigger inventory this year needing to move it but it is not really bearish either as we are holding our own now on the world market. Corn basis May traded mildly softer Monday with new 6 week lows today of 2.064. Support now lies at 1.98 then 1.93 with turn around resistance of 2.15. We look for corn to post a low for the month basis May futures in the first one third of the month as funds get out of much of their 30 thousand longs they hold but the last half of April looks to see short covering by small speculators holding a net short 90 thousand contracts wanting to buy out ahead of end of month first delivery notices going out. They have begun planting corn in central Illinois. Growers want to get it in early to take advantage of spring rains. Friday we have our monthly USDA crop report. The trade expects a small increase from our March carry over stocks of 2.055 b.b. BEAN: We started the week’s reports with Monday’s weekly export inspection report showing 16.6 m.b. were inspected for near term export, unchanged from the week prior but well under our four week average of 24.2. The last 6 weeks in reverse read like this 16.8, 19.7, 34.3, 25.7, 27.3 and 33.5 m.b. You can see demand has been softening as the Brazilian crop came closer to and entered harvest with them overtaking us as the world’s main port of origin to buy beans from into April and May. Just a not e to show how sensitive this market will be to weather related concerns. On Monday just after 12:15, a weather TV guru on a nation wide station came on with his weather update for the week. July beans were down 1 cent 60 seconds after he announced a major rain system would hit the midwest bean belt states Wednesday to Thursday, July popped to up 3.4 cents. Reason, traders know to watch this weather guru and felt his wet forecast would delay plantings and the later the crop goes in the more of the crop that will mature on hotter drier dates in July and August. It is a little early to get weather sensitive for beans but you can see at these low price levels we will see weather become more and more important as we get into May. Tuesday saw a May futures low of 6.08 a five week low. I have said on this web site that after the Brazilian harvest begins, we get a low price action as demand abates with a pull back to the 6.06 gap. We are 70 cents lower since harvest began. Now what? No one wants to sell into Friday’s crop report as the trade expects a lower carry over stocks number or ending stocks. Last month’s number was 410 m.b. It could come in under 390 m.b. It is not unthinkable that after the report next week early could give us a test of 6.08 but use April to find a low to begin buying your first summer month growing season contracts. Traders will buy breaks daily in Friday’s report. WHEAT: Monday began with our weekly export inspection report showing 12.3 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export, down from 20.5 the week prior 22 a year ago and a weak four week average. Year today inspections are 875 m.b. versus 947 a year ago. Pretty discouraging demand signal after breaking 45 cents the last several weeks. For the last two weeks I have given 3.12 as a worst case target mark well, we hit 3.104 today. A close under 3.12 then next stop is 3.05. 3.05 takes away the entire big move that started February 22nd at 3.05 and peaked March 15 at 3.69. Friday’s crop report should show a slight increases in ending stocks from the March report of 553 m.b. This is the last week where demand is our primary pricing force with next week beginning our weather market for our winter wheat crop breaking dormancy. Monday gave us our first USDA crop quality rating of the year. It rates the crop in 5 categories. Very poor, poor, fair, good and excellent. The trade odds the good and excellent categories as that is the groups that meet export grade and it higher on the week, its price bearish, if lower on the week its price bullish. This week’s rating was 68% in good to excellent condition versus 48% last year this time. We have a long ways to go until our late May harvest. Avoid long side this week. End.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (26925)	4/6/2005 10:06:41 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Weekly mortgage applications volume down 4.4% Wednesday, April 6, 2005 11:15:28 AM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Mortgage appplications activity fell 4.4% in the week ended April 1 compared to a week earlier, according to the latest data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Also on a seasonally adjusted basis, last week's volume of mortgages to purchase homes dropped by 5.3% and refinancing applications sank 3.1%. Refinancings accounted for 38.3% of last week's total applications, up from the prior week's 37.8%, while adjustable-rate mortgages slipped to 35.2% from 36.6%. Average contract interest rates stood at 5.91% for 30-year mortgages last week, down from 6.08% a week earlier, while 15-year mortgages decreased to 5.48% from 5.61%. Rates on one-year ARMs also fell on a week-to-week basis, slipping to 4.29% from 4.39%, the MBA reported