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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (26945)	4/5/2005 6:46:55 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Oil price may fall in second quarter www.chinaview.cn 2005-04-05 08:01:58 BEIJING, April 5 -- The average oil price in the three months ending June 30 may fall for the first time in eight quarters as United States inventories rise and China's demand growth slows, a Bloomberg survey showed. Oil futures in New York may average US$49.50 a barrel in the second quarter, down from US$50.03 in the first, according to the median forecasts of 25 analysts. Demand typically declines to its lowest in the second quarter as winter heating oil demand eases before consumption of gasoline begins to rise to its annual peak in the summer driving season. This year, oil may average US$47.90 in New York, 15.5 per cent higher than in 2004 because the cushion between supply and demand is shrinking. Oil in New York traded at US$57.48 - 21 US cents or 0.4 per cent higher yesterday. New York New York oil prices have gained 67 per cent from a year ago and reached a record of US$57.70 a barrel on April 1. Crude oil for May delivery closed at US$57.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on April 1, the highest since the contract was introduced on March 30, 1983. Brent traded in London may fall to an average of US$46 a barrel in the second quarter, from US$47.96 last quarter, the survey, which was conducted from March 22 - April 4, showed. Respondents include analysts at banks, consulting companies and energy agencies worldwide. In the full year, New York oil futures are forecast to average US$47.90 a barrel, up from US$41.47 last year. Brent may rise to US$45.75 from US$38.04 in 2004, according to the survey. Analysts have raised their forecasts since December, when they predicted that New York oil would average US$39, and Brent would average US$36.70 in 2005, according to the median of estimates from 24 analysts. Prices in 2005 will be higher than last year because of concern about possible disruptions to supply from countries such as Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria news.xinhuanet.com