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To: AllansAlias who wrote (116077)	4/5/2005 11:43:41 PM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

AA, nice to see you around these parts. I miss talking to you. Things okay?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (116077)	4/5/2005 11:47:16 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

a contrarian target I favour... spx 1255.26 by the end of June...then a hardy decline boomspeed.com Spring is here...Hallelujah ;~)

To: AllansAlias who wrote (116077)	4/11/2005 6:59:04 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Not sure how much you care about this, but I'm pretty sure we're still in a secular bear, with the meat of the move - the severe consumer recession - queued up. The last major cycle produced a cyclical bear lasting 21 months, from the very beginning of 1973 through Oct. 1974, for the 4-year-cycle bottom. A similar down cycle would yield a low in Oct. 2006, and make the early 2005 highs the tops for the cyclical (counter-secular) bull. Given the funnymental backdrop (post-election year, interest rate hikes, real estate creaking), the rational expection would be for a significant downleg here. Of course, we all know what rational thinking is worth! <g> I'm not sure if this is the exact script, but I think it should be pretty close. Basically, I invest with a 12-24 month time horizon, and I think stocks are substantially lower looking out that time span. I don't use leverage, and I'm not going to try to be so cute with the entry that I miss the move. And of course, the market will let me know if I'm wrong. It's not the wrong entries that bite, it's staying wrong that's expensive... BC