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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (154983)	4/6/2005 12:09:14 AM
From: Elmer Phud	Respond to of 275872

TWY - AKA Andy Grave FWIW, I estimate AMD can make 11 million/quarter with the mix and die sizes discussed here. More if yields are higher than I assumed. Well it's not worth much but just what are you estimating for AMD's defect density and product mix?

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (154983)	4/6/2005 2:38:06 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

TWY, I estimate AMD can make 11 million/quarter with the mix and die sizes discussed here. More if yields are higher than I assumed. That sounds reasonable to me, assuming there is (will be) there for packaging and testing. However, they will only produce them if they are all ready guaranteed to sell. At this point, there is no point in holding anything back. You could argue that there is no point in making expensive 1M L2 130nm desktop die when 512K die and higher bin splits are around the corner. Then you could argue that much smaller 90nm dies were around the corner. Then, you could argue that higher binning E stepping was around the corner. But once yields on 90nm E stepping are acceptable, there is nothing around the corner to wait for. The clock speeds are stalled. The part you make today will not go down in price all that much, future bin splits will not be way beyond what they are today, that the part you make today would be obsolete 3, 6, 9, 12 months from now. I think Hector needs to get very aggressive in both the mobile and server area. Agreed. I think, looking at the Turion prices, I think Hector is already doing it in the mobile area. Let's see how it works once Turion becomes available (my guess Q3 will be the first time it is possible to see a meaningful results). On the server end, I think AMD needs to be more aggressive. AMD will have luxury of dual core, so you can at the same time be very aggressive with prices of existing single core and new dual core, and still end up with approximately constant ASP (but much higher units). BTW, all the other ways to get into the corporate market failed so far. The only one way that is working is Opteron. AMD has a foot in the door with Opteron, and with dual Opteron, AMD has a tool to open the door much wider (if the tool is used properly). Joe