Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (30125)	4/6/2005 10:59:44 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Which currency is safest in your mind? Yen? Jon For what time period? Right now, believe it or not, US$ cash is not a bad bet. As long as you are there, may as well get some 6 month treasuries. I think the YEN can get hammered. Japan more heavily dependent on oil than the US and if we have a world slowdown (likely) just who is Japan going to export to? Mish

To: Robohogs who wrote (30125)	4/6/2005 4:29:00 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 110194

I've done it in two parts - to countries with stable monetary and fiscal policies - and to some high yielding currencies who are commodity driven. I agree that in general the Dollar rises with US interest rate increases. But we've had seven already and real rates of interest are still at around half a percent if you use the official inflation figures. Plus the current account deficit is at 6% - I feel my downside risk is nicely capped with the recent rally - unless one feels the C.A. deficit will hit 800 billion to a trillion. Traditionally at this point of the inflation cycle, Real Rates have been at 3%. The Fed has no reason to slow this policy until forced so somebody/something has to force the issue. My feeling is that a major spike in commodities would precipitate a Dollar meltdown that would force the Fed to act and most likely flatten if not invert the yield curve. The recent move in the CRB has yet to be passed down and translated into the figures as well so expect CPI to continue to increase.