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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41520)	4/7/2005 1:20:33 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

"China's cracking banking system & economy is the ticking time bomb." I agree completely. We don't know exactly how long the fuse is but based on WTO conditions of acceptance one can be pretty sure it is less than 9 months long. Our economy isn't looking too great either. msnbc.msn.com Home foreclosure listings surged in March Data seen showing housing market may be cooling The Associated Press Updated: 12:38 p.m. ET April 7, 2005 NEW YORK - In what could be a crack in the housing market's sturdy foundation, the number of foreclosed homes put up for sale rose 50 percent between February and March, according to a new study by Foreclosure.com. The increase is one of the biggest monthly spikes Foreclosure.com has seen since it began tracking the market in 1999, according to Jim Houston, vice president of the foreclosure listing service. ...

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41520)	4/7/2005 11:39:50 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 206325

Slider, US Dollar currency collapsing against the Euro is the primary reason the Price of Crude Oil has ramped in US Dollar terms. Looking at this site worldoil.com WTIC was 30.73 a year ago. Today (I guess yesterday ... 56.62 or up 84.25%. according to this site xe.com the USD was 1.2081950284 a year ago. Today (I guess yesterday again) 1.2822089838 USD per Euro. a 6.1% increase. Anecdotally in 2003 December with the Loonie soaring Canadian Canroy holders were bemoaning the Loonie rise as expenses increased.. Americans were of course hedged automatically. Until very recently no one has been complaining much except for the recent volatility and general weakness.. In Dec 2003 it was ALL about the USD IMHO but not now. It looks like the huge rise in oil over the last year has only token input from a depreciating USD relative the Euro ? regards Kastel spots.kicks-ass.org

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41520)	4/10/2005 6:06:04 PM
From: croesus1111	Respond to of 206325

<US Dollar currency collapsing against the Euro is the primary reason the Price of Crude Oil has ramped in US Dollar terms.> Over the past five years, since the dollar bear market began, oil has gone up more than the CRB. mrci.com inflationdata.com The CRB increase has been a maximum of about 1.8 fold, from the bottom to the top. Oil has at least doubled since 2000, and has gone up more like five-fold if you want to look at the 1999 bottom to the top of the market now. I agree that the 1.8 fold increase in the CRB in general can be explained by the dollar/euro action and the decrease in confidence in the american economy represented by that action. The rest of the increase in the oil price since 1999 must be due to other factors. The Norwegians and British are pumping at maximum capacity, and the Russians probably are too. There is probably a mideast fear premium. Chinese demand means there may not be a lot of slack. So OPEC has an effective monopoly again, and probably the Saudis are the only ones with enough excess capacity to make a big impact, and they like the high prices. So there's probably a demand component, a currency component, a fear component, and a monopoly/supply component to the high price of oil. Barring a big recession here, in Europe, or in Asia, I don't see any of these components radically altering for the better, so I see no fundamental reason for the oil price to come down yet. Unless Slider, your China bust hypothesis is right, which I don't discount. But who knows what the timing on that will be?