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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (23481)	4/7/2005 8:27:56 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 108962

CNBC Town Hall Meeting on Real Estate Bubble... All I needed to see... Bill Griffith asks the crowd to raise your hands if you think Stocks are a better investment right now than Real Estate. At first - no one raised their hand... he asked again; - 1 person. One. Talk about "extreme" sentiment. Yowser. These Real Estate Seminars are Hot, Hot, Hot,,, RE investing Clubs the noveau cocktail hour. I feel sorry for these people. Earlier today... on a teaser for the Show they featured a Long Island Roofer and his wife who are "flipping homes"...others who live in Californaia... where the market is getting "too hot" are now buying investment homes to flip in Florida & Las Vegas... sometimes even re-assigning contracts on un-built New Construction Homes before they close on the initial purchase. As noted in an earlier post here today... Foreclosures.com noted a record 50% increase month over month in the Foreclosure Rate. Recently the Appraisal Fraud Game was featured in various newspapers... this is a major catalyst to the flipping game... and I've been in the Mortgage Industry... once foreclosure rates start ramping...and they will into an economic slowdown...the Appraisal Game ends... and tens of thousands of homes bought to re-flip....become un-saleable...with significant negative equity... as Underwriters start cracking down on flagrant fraud-laden inflated appraisals. Underwriting criteria...of which Appraisal review is a component (in addition to credit/debt-income ratio criteria etc) is highly cyclical...tight to loose, to ultra-tight. The loosey-goosey nature of credit qualification & underwriting has reached an all-time high (or low, depending on how you look at it)...and if Fannie Mae is cracking like I think it is... the Mortgage Market is going to once again seize up like it did in 1998... vis a vie the downfall of Cityscape, the Money Store, Green Tree Financial et al. (Roebear... hear me Roar ~!) Tic-F'n-Toc` ...this is going to be very Uggggg-lyyyyy when it ends. In many RE Markets... sit patiently in cash people... there's going to be a lot of freshly re-habbed properties available real soon... much, much cheaper and you wont need to even pick up a damn paintbrush (vbg). Patience & Cash will also be richly rewarded in Real Estate.