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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (27113)	4/7/2005 9:40:15 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Grain Report HI, THIS IS TIM HANNAGAN AND IT IS THURSDAY, APRIL 7, 2005, AND THE MARKETS ARE CLOSED. CORN: Our weekly export sales report came out at 7:30 a.m. central time as it does each week telling us how much of each grain was sold last week and becomes a gauge of demand. Corn sales last week were 664 t.t. off 43% from the week prior and 31% under our four week average. The drop came as key buyer Japan backed away. Sales todate are about 10% behind a year ago and with ending corn stocks for the start of our next harvest over 1 b.b. more than the year prior, better year todate demand is needed not worse. Demand remains a non-factor in pricing with planting progress into May and then weathers effects after as a continuing more important pricing fundamental. Tomorrow at 7:30 a.m. central time we get our USDA monthly crop report. The trade looks for a 50 to 100 m.b. increase in our carry over stocks for the start of our new marketing year September 1st. Last month’s reports put our carryover at 2.055 billion bushels up from 2.010 the month prior and 958 million bushels September 1st a year ago. If it comes in line with expectations we should expect selling to occur with new contract lows into next week. Late month gives way to short covering ahead of May 1st deliveries, leaving us with a pre-planting low before mid-month. BEAN: Our weekly export sales report showed 342 t.t. of beans were sold last week up 15% from the week prior but 30% under our four week average. The slightly better sales on the week came as Iraq purchased 60 t.t. the first purchase since 2001. Asian sales our key were down. It is a neutral to slightly bearish demand signal. Friday’s USDA crop report is expected to show a decline in our carryover stocks number which last month came in at 410 m.b. The trade looks for a 20 to 35 m.b. cut due to a upward revision in our export projections as drought hit export competitor Brazil. If they come in with a shocking number like 340 m.b. or lower, our 6.08 low we hit Tuesday could hold into our May planting month. If it is in line with expectations we have a good chance of seeing another soft spot in prices into next week with a test of 6.08 or lower basis May. If the cut is 20 to 30 m.b. sell a higher open or if it opens higher put a sell stop one cent under Thursday’s close to get short incase it opens higher and continues. Goal for the month is to identify a pre-planting low to buy and stay long into our growing season. WHEAT: Our weekly export sales report showed 205 t.t. of wheat was sold last week off 44% from the week prior and four week average. The weak sales came as middle east regular business was absent with most going to Latin America where they buy hand to mouth as needed. Demand remains a negative pricing source. Friday’s USDA crop report looks to have only a small downward projection on carryover stocks from our March report of 553 m.b. and I would not be surprised if it came in higher by 5 m.b. with demand so bad. Either way I without any surprises May wheat looks poised to push 10 to 15 cents lower as demand remains weak and weather looks good over our winter wheat states. END