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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MJ who wrote (7580)	4/8/2005 5:41:27 PM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

WGAT in definite break-out mode today a will likely travel to upper resistance at $6.00. 139.142.147.218

To: MJ who wrote (7580)	4/8/2005 5:53:01 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 8752

Wow, that was some move... +20%. 139.142.147.218 Note the extreme BB contraction, a very unstable condition, and the bullish divergence in the technicals. As I anticipated, QQQQ was turned away from chart resistance at around $37. The high of the day was $37.07, which was just $0.03 short of resistance from the 50 ema, $0.05 short of resistance from the descending 50 sma, and $0.18 short of the top rail of the BBs: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLyb20,2.0!Lg]&pref=G Note how contracted these BBs have now become.... The technical indicators show a relative overbought state in QQQQ right now. That is, stochastics are not over 80, but the peaks in overbought stochastic readings have been declining since November, and in fact the last time the stochastics were over 80 was early December. This is related to the steady decline in OBV (also the decline in relative strength), which as you can see began in about mid-December, and all these are manifestations of the medium term correction we are still in: 139.142.147.218 I see precious little bullish signs in the intraday chart also, except for the fact that OBV can't get much lower; the apparent stochastic crossover is more or less negated by the OBV and the Williams which is hooking down, and doesn't look very strong in any case. 139.142.147.22 So again, I see all this as consistent with where I think QQQQ is headed, namely down to about $35, which is the most likely spot for QQQQ to make a stand, end the correction, and resume the long-term uptrend defined by the regression channels off the V-bottom trend reversal in October 2002 (131 weeks ago): 139.142.147.218 I think it is no coincidence that the lower regression line is currently just under $35; that is one reason I think this is a likely reversal point. Another is the regression channels that define the medium term correction, regardless of whether you draw them from the beginning in late December 139.142.147.218 or if you exclude the precipitous fall in early January: 139.142.147.218 Either way, those lower rails are targeting that $35 area. However, because the slopes of these regression channels differ, using the 18 week regression channel predicts reversal will occur within the next several weeks, whereas the shorter (12 week) regression channel implies this will take at least 4 - 6 weeks. FWIW, today when I saw QQQQ fail at the 40 ema on the 5 minute chart and confirm that failure, that was the signal, so I flipped from long to short. Guess we will have to see how this works out, but most likely I'll stay short until I see evidence that the correction is ending and a bottom is being formed. ....all IMHO, of course. T