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To: ajtj99 who wrote (116294)	4/10/2005 10:47:56 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Interesting observations, AJ. And yet, I think it is entirely possible that if we have an economic downturn, all these inflationary pressures may turn around - and show - in a Janus-like fashion - their scary deflationary side. Think about it... a meaningful market decline, along with a slide in real estate prices, spiced up by some credit crunch (and increase in unemployment).... and trillions of $$$'s worth of wealth will simply evaporate... go to the money heaven. As soon as Americans and other Westerners will slow down buying things they don't really need, overcapacity will lead to serious disturbances in the manufacturing-oriented Asian economies, particularly China. The bull market in commodities - at the very best - will suffer a major setback. I am no economist, but I do see how - if the above does happen - no amount of printing by the Fed would be able to control events. We forget things very quickly - it wasn't all that long ago when Gov. Bernanke threatened to drop money off helicopters if deflation becomes imminent. I think that such steps would lead to larger problems than the ones they would be expected to alleviate.