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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (30315)	4/9/2005 8:49:18 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<total Fed repos soared throughout March.> Not especially correct, but judge for yourself. First week of March was mostly under 24 billion. bullandbearwise.com The activity that was fairly heavy of late has been the Treasury TIOs, but that's now down to zero since the beginning of April. It's also very temporary money. omo.co.nz <John Succo thinks the Fed is monetizing the long bond.> Unless they have a rat line set up in the Bermuda Triangle, I see zero evidence of this. Weekly change in securities held. 12-22 +85 12-29 +53 1-6 +92 1-13 +3 1-20 +3 1-27 +2 2-3 +28 2-10 +31 2-17 -20 2-24 -21 3-3 -159 3-10 -184 3-17 +10 3-24 +10 3-31 +10 4-7 -191 Total last 16 weeks - 248 <Has the Fed started back up with coupon passes?> Not a single one since Dec 9th. Other than a huge two week surge Feb 18- March 2, FCBs have been largely MIA as well, with what activity they have conducted being centered in the agency market. 3-10 +1,642 3-17 +4,610 3-24 +3,747 3-31 +2,994 4-7 -1,661 5 week average: 2,266 agency purchases this period: +6,191 I think speculators who've been betting on "liquidity" injections from Uncle Ernie to sustain their various Bubbles are now barking up the wrong tree.

To: orkrious who wrote (30315)	4/9/2005 9:29:26 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<The monetary base and monetary aggregates are surging anew > This can be volatile and misleading. In fact, if we saw a panic, or a flight to quality, or a credit spread widening, you might see an increase in certain monetary measures, as people looked for perceived safety. It will be hard to judge what players will view as safe too. What would the monetary aggregates look like if there was a pile on into gold, treasury bills, or foreign govt issues? jessel.100megsfree3.com Right now there is rapid speculator borrowing underway, combined with some credit spread widening. Tipping point? () If so some money may already be leaking into shorter deposits, or even short bills? That would expand the monetary aggregates. () This shows recent banking credit expansion. federalreserve.gov The average weekly growth in 2004 is about $10 billion a week. Notice that through 3/16, credit growth for the previous 11 weeks was running at $30 billion a week. Blowoff? Then in the last two weeks it's fallen $30 billion. That's quite unusual, and if that continued (or flattened) it would signal a major sea change.: 12/29/2004 6738.6 01/05/2005 6777.8 01/12/2005 6811.1 01/19/2005 6845.7 01/26/2005 6857.7 02/02/2005 6905.2 02/09/2005 6914.3 02/16/2005 6928.8 02/23/2005 6969.9 03/02/2005 6978.9 03/09/2005 7002.4 03/16/2005 7043.0 03/23/2005 7048.4 03/30/2005 7008.0

To: orkrious who wrote (30315)	4/9/2005 11:46:18 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think Succo is wrong In fact I think Greenspan tried to talk up long rates so as to not invert the yield curve on his banker buddies John Succo thinks the Fed is monetizing the long bond.

To: orkrious who wrote (30315)	4/10/2005 11:58:49 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Update on bank deposit growth ytd. Deposit growth in 2004 was a whopping 10.8%. For the last twelve weeks, it's slowed to 4.9%. Is part of the explanation, besides less money printing, a leaking into the short term Treasury market, given that banks pay poor rates? federalreserve.gov Non transaction (money markets, non-Cd) deposits have actually dropped, and that's during a period when tax refunds were paid out. Now the late filers write out checks. $95 billion according the WSE's Steve Northwood: wallstreetexaminer.com 01/05/2005 4726.7 01/12/2005 4718.4 01/19/2005 4673.5 01/26/2005 4613.9 02/02/2005 4711.8 02/09/2005 4685.5 02/16/2005 4663.1 02/23/2005 4664.5 03/02/2005 4739.3 03/09/2005 4737.4 03/16/2005 4735.7 03/23/2005 4694.8 03/30/2005 4665.9 Transaction deposits (higher cost CD) have increased. Bank cost are clearly rising. 01/05/2005 609.6 01/12/2005 631.1 01/19/2005 682.4 01/26/2005 714.2 02/02/2005 640.0 02/09/2005 646.0 02/16/2005 663.4 02/23/2005 725.4 03/02/2005 653.6 03/09/2005 644.5 03/16/2005 685.4 03/23/2005 730.2 03/30/2005 730.9