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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (23009)	4/10/2005 9:37:38 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

KB, I recall reading a book by Darryl Guppy titled, "Market Trading Strategies." What stands out in my mind about that book is his telling the reader that nearly all market strategies are based on prejudice or bias. We write our trading programs to fit our particular bias, whether it be bullish or bearish. Guppy says to neutralize the bias, invert the chart. What a concept! If I were to invert the OIH chart I would have: On the bullish side. Instead of: OIH failed to break out to a new high. I would have: 1. OIH successfully testing a new low. Instead of: Money flows very negative. I would have: 2. Money flows very positive. Instead of: More selling volume on down weeks than buying volume on up weeks. I would have: 3. More buying volume on up weeks than selling volume on down weeks. Instead of: Negative diveregences in the indicators. They are not supporting or confirming higher prices. I would have: 4. Positive diveregences in the indicators. They are supporting or confirming higher prices. On the bear side. Instead of: Still above the 20 week moving average. I would have: 1. Still below the 20 week moving average, plenty of room to run. Based on that analysis, most of the BBR people would be overweighting their positions. However, due to their bias, they will ignore those same signals on the downside. They won't protect profits or wait to add to existing positons. It's this bias that prevents people from outperforming the markets over time and I do know, based on studies, that 95% of retail investors will underperform the market over time and so will 80% of professional investors. People are very good at playing mind games. If they have a bias, it doesn't matter what the tools are to get you into and out of a trade. It could be a flip of the coin, a dart thrown at a board, FA or TA, it doesn't matter. Most people look for something to confirm their bias. Hell, I had a stretch, during the boom years where counting the number of deer on the side of the road determined if the market was going to be up or down that day and it worked for a short period of time. I have found, based on my experience, that inverting the chart will determine what is the prudent course of action. dabum

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (23009)	4/12/2005 11:19:26 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Off Topic, on an old topic: AIG's Greenberg is taking the 5th and refusing to testify in front of the SEC, invoking Martha Stewart. This is exactly what I said would happen, that the prosecution and conviction of Martha Stewart was the worst outcome for law enforcement investigations (aka in this case a Spitzer fishing expedition). Martha was convicted for lying to investigators based on the notes those investigators took (not video, not a court reporter style record) when Martha voluntarily agreed to help them with their investigation of IMCL. Never convicted of any securities related crime, she became a convicted felon under these ridiculous circumstances. "Mr. Jones, we're investigating a suspicious fire near your office; do you pay your property taxes on time?" "Ms. Smith, a little girl was abducted 3 blocks over; have you ever bought, sold or used any controlled substance?" Anyone who would cooperate with any law enforcement investigation (knowing they could charge you with being untruthful about ANY of your answers, even if they were not related to any crime) is a fool. Greenberg is no fool, to answer any questions would be tantamount to saying, here, let me provide you with plenty of rope to hang me with. You choose whether it's worth the risk to help the "good guys" now. Kb