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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DRBES who wrote (155521)	4/10/2005 10:55:39 AM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Of course large insider purchase/excersise w/o selling are bullish- but remember that even Hector in all his "cunningness" cannot predict how his customers will respond, how Intel will respond and how the market will respond. There is nothing for sure in this market. That said, I still think that with competent consistent execution and with the recent consistent incompetent execution of Intel AMD has a once in a lifetime chance to unseat Intel from their bear grip of this market. But don't forget the "law" of unintended consenquences. With the recent changes at HP and given that HP is one of the largest supporters of AMD in the server market, there is quite a bit of uncertaintity in the near future. What if this new HP head decides that the only way to fight Dell is to embrace the Dell model and go monogamous with Intel? What if he spins the major PC biz off and in the transation/confusion the whole thing just implodes and Dell picks up the pieces. Dell already has 33% of the US market and ~18% of the world wide market. Any further gains by that behemoth and AMD may find it becomming very difficult to gain segment share. IT folks are quite stupid/clueless out there(1). TG (1). I have an interesting story re. this. A few months ago, I asked my "head" IT guy if were were worried about buffer overflow attacks and if he was asking Dell (our only server supplier) if they were going to support Opterons' or "other" computers with the "NX" or "execute protection" bit? He asked: "What is that?". Enough said!

To: DRBES who wrote (155521)	4/10/2005 11:05:23 AM
From: storm05	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

DRBES, Comments ? If you look at the recent Ruiz transaction, the bottom line is that he paid $650K for shares that are currently worth $2.1M, more than three times as much, yet still retains millions of additional options. A killer deal with very limited risk barring some unforeseen disaster, taxes notwithstanding. Also, the position he held before the transaction was lower than that of some of his officers and directors.

To: DRBES who wrote (155521)	4/10/2005 1:37:08 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Darbes, Hector can't tell the future, but certainly know much more about it, with more data at hand. It's kind of like a card game. Hector sees his hand. We only see the cards that were played and money that he bet. I surely hope that he is a good player... One thing though: Intel's entire plan with dealing with competition is to somehow persuade (strongarm) everyone to push AMD CPUs to the lowest end of the market, end effect of which is that Intel has ASPs 2x those of AMD. I see some signs that AMD is escaping this trap... Joe

To: DRBES who wrote (155521)	4/10/2005 2:26:11 PM
From: Gary Hoyer	Respond to of 275872

I believe that the following will prove to be one of my most significant posts:... More so than one of these gems? SNOT time to wake dougSF30 yet Message 21210463; eff dis be it, et am a sellin portunity Message 21207786; duh maaaaaket seems to be saying dat AMD iss not gonk to warn :) Message 21198913; In DUH meanwhile intel Pentium D XE SUCKS Message 21195441; LOL, sorry I just had to have some fun with this as some of those titles just cracked me up. Now for the serious commentary, yes I believe once we get passed Q1 earnings and get closer to the April 21st DC launch date that AMD's stock price will vindicate Hector's bold move. I remember the days during the Internet boom when investors liked to talk about "backing up the truck" to load up on an undervalued stock. Those frothy days are gone which makes it even more significant that Hector has backed up his truck to load up on AMD, now will Wall St. follow his lead?

To: DRBES who wrote (155521)	4/10/2005 8:06:58 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

re: <gratuitously early execution of options> I did not realize that early exercise, as Hector has done, results in immediate tax liability taxed at ordinary income rates. (PS, it is probably even worse than that, since this income is for-sure taxed at even-higher-than-ordinary "AMT" rates.) Obviously he doesn't expect the stock to go down. If the exercise price is $10 and it is currently at $16, he loses 35-45% (depends on state) of the $6 profit to taxes immediately, but if the stock goes to $50, the taxes on the additional $34 profit will be half as high compared to holding the options until then. Do any of the online services that evaluate insider buying/selling make note of whether option exercises are done earlier than they have to be? Petz

To: DRBES who wrote (155521)	4/10/2005 8:18:42 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

If the options were ISOs, instead of NQOs, then there is no tax liability at exercise. It would still show up under the AMT system, however, IIRC. However, as you say, one must balance the taxes paid (in the NQO case) against the advantage of starting the clock ticking on the one year capital gains for the newly acquired stock.

To: DRBES who wrote (155521)	4/12/2005 9:06:06 AM
From: Rink	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

DRBES, I've seen accumulation by Ruiz and Topfer too and ofcourse can't but see it as a possitive indicator. From my personal viewpoint I'm seeing future appreciation of AMD common based on current and near future technical fundament in place, and simply think that's exactly what Ruiz and Topfer saw and reacted upon as well. They do see more details than we, but the general picture of the fundament should more or less be one and the same. I try to invest in AMD based on the minimum gain in appreciation that I think AMD will get which is big enough for me to invest in LEAPs that are currently unfortunately under water (made some nice gains last year though although not exclusively in AMD). Regards, Rink