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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (27876)	4/11/2005 11:18:44 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

That is bullish. Seems like you should have bolded this line too, so I'll just repeat it here: Lee forecasts NAND demand to outstrip supply by 5% to 10% this year. Even as more and more DRAM makers boost the supply of NAND due to the relative ease in shifting production with little capital investment, he still expects a "slight" shortage in 2006. The question is, though, will Mr. Market listen to what Samsung is saying, or just continue their "oversupply" and "falling margins" mantra of the past 5 quarters, despite these having been shown to be false? I have to say, I was surprised at this line: Lee, who has spent over a decade at Samsung developing flash-memory chips as an engineer, said that profit margins from the flash business will surpass that of DRAM by the end of this year. I would have thought that profit margins from flash were larger than those from DRAM already. In fact, it was my impression that DRAM businesses operated on razor thin margins due to competition. Guess not for Samsung, at least. I wonder what their accounting is like.

To: slacker711 who wrote (27876)	4/11/2005 11:26:30 AM
From: Pam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Hi Slacker, I think, Samsung will still move some DRAM output to Nand (and why not if the demand is in excess of supply and the flexibility is there) because their Line 13 (new 300mm Fab) is still not filled and they hope to use it up completely by this year-end. Line 13 is a DRAM only Fab, so they can move the production from existing DRAM lines that can manufacture both Nand and DRAM to Line 13 and free-up capacity for more Nand in the flexi-fabs. Samsung unveiled a 4-gigabit NAND flash memory chip earlier this year of which it plans to begin mass production in the second quarter. It plans to introduce an 8Gb flash memory next year, said Lee. Delay in 8Gb sounds good. This means Toshiba/Sandisk could be ahead in 8Gb if they maintain their original schedule. Personally, I am always worried about the demand. For now the demand for next couple of years looks good but Q-to-Q demand could be erratic and could be a problem and it can make SNDK volatile in the coming quarters. We have seen too many 20% hair-cuts in the recent past because of Analysts paranoia about GPM and expected Nand flooding:-( iSuppli expects the global NAND market to grow 8% this year to $7.17 billion; another 36% to $9.75 billion in 2006; and 12% to $10.91 billion in 2007. How does one explain the mediocre growth (again this is relative) of 8% in Nand this year?? Samsung said bit growth of 120%, Sandisk said 120-140% bit growth and with a mean of 130% bit growth and 40% ASP decline we should still get a healthy 38% growth is revs!! Looks like iSuppli is expecting ASP declines of 53% this year. Possible, but I hope not. -Pam

To: slacker711 who wrote (27876)	4/11/2005 11:54:29 AM
From: Bruno Cipolla	Respond to of 60323

re: samsung 300 mm nand only production line "Lee said the new line will be able to process 7,000 wafers a month from July and more than double the amount to 15,000 wafers by the end of December. To date, Samsung has invested about $1 billion in the new 12-inch line, according to regulatory filings." sg.biz.yahoo.com "SanDisk and Toshiba - 300mm Wafer Fab The 300mm wafer fab is expected to start production in the second half of CY2005 and is planned to quickly ramp up output to 10,000 wafers a month by late 2005. Capacity will then be expanded as dictated by market demand to up to 40,000 wafers a month by the first half of CY2007. Output during each phase of expansion is expected to be equally shared between Toshiba and SanDisk. The fab still has space to expand capacity, and further investment could take output to as high as 62,500 wafers a month. .... The total investment is expected to approach approximately US$2.6 billion by the end of March 2007." from letsgodigital.org