To: Biomaven who wrote (155617 ) 4/11/2005 8:56:59 PM From: Sam Citron Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872 Speaking of the Dell opportunity, Thomas Friedman just wrote a book, The World Is Flat , in which Dell and its supply chains feature quite prominently. Apparently Michael Dell asked Friedman to come to Round Rock to give a talk to employees. Since his employer, NYT, says Friedman cannot receive monetary compensation for such things, Friedman asked instead for a complete parts list to his Dell laptop and the factory where each part came was assembled, like some big Wassily Leontief input-output table. His operating thesis is that in the 21st Century supply chains are just as important, if not more important, than political alliances. There is a chapter called The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention in which he argues quite persuasively that countries that recognize their own longterm strategic interests will be extremely reluctant to enter into conflicts with other countries that are part of their supply chains. Helps explain why the US has little difficulty pushing its weight around places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran that are not a part of our supply chain. I am thinking that Dell is such a master at the supply chain game that when they hitch their wagon to INTC processors on a sole source basis, INTC has plenty of leverage points to be sure that they keep the customer happy, in spite of somebody possibly having a faster processor out there. I am sure there are many quid pro quos and countervailing benefits. So my opinion (as a very small AMD shareholder) is that if it happens that AMD makes it into Dell's dupply chain, great, but I wouldn't buy calls on it, even LEAPs. $142B (market cap) Intel and $93B Dell have a certain comfort level with each other. Dell isn't going to risk that relationship on what could turn out to be a temporary advantage by a $7B upstart. I suspect that the sheer number of fabs that Intel has in so many countries is some assurance that no matter what, INTC will be able to deliver. I am not sure that AMD can offer such assurances, although I'm sure they try. JMHO, Sam