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To: russwinter who wrote (30394)	4/11/2005 8:57:51 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 110194

Friends, I smell a recession, not in the immediate future, but soon. I was thinking about hosting some sort of prediction contest (for free of course) on my blog. I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on how to do it? My thinking was to allow people one pick at any time until we know there is a recession (using NBER as the judge of when the recession started). To encourage early picks, I would give people more credit for early predictions. Hopefully people would post their reasons for their picks. Any suggestions?

To: russwinter who wrote (30394)	4/11/2005 9:42:00 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<<Apartment vacancies nationwide are falling and rents are rising, according to a published report Monday.>> Sounds like BS, but with all the condo conversions going on, maybe significant supply IS being taken out.....or maybe they don't count condo rentals as "apartments" but as "home" rentals?

To: russwinter who wrote (30394)	4/11/2005 11:06:19 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

Mom just got a letter in from her section 8 housing people in Florida. April 1, 2005 (was it a joke? - the irony) Dear housing choice voucher Landlord: As you know allocations for this program from Congress have been severly limited in the past two years and the WPB housing authority had to disallow any and all requests for a rent increase. (mom is only getting 775 for her 3br home - houses around it bringing 1200+ a month) However we do realize that without landlords who are willing to rent to tenants with vouchers, the program will fail. Rental housing is a business and we want landlords, such as you, who are sensitive to the needs of limited income families to succeed. (mom can't make money anymore after increases in taxes, repairs, and especially hurricane insurance - time for someone else to bear that burden to help the poor people - she is going negative now) Effective with the next lease renewal - on a case by case basis the housing authority will consider a request for units that are currently below our payment standards. Please be advised that an increase will not automatically be granted, but we will consider accomodations to your request. Again thank you for providing safe decent affordable housing to our program participants. In an effort to ensure a timely response to your inequiries to our section 8 counselors we are requesting that you use Email as the standard method of communications. (my mom can't spell computer anymore - much less use one - the sad thing is the section 8 lady she has been working with can't either - it is a HUGE chaotic MESS - if they get the emails - it will be years to act on them) They go on to list the emails for section 8 people then: Landlord Rent Increase West Palm Beach Authority Payment Standards by Bedroom Size 0BR 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR Lot Rental 584 685 808 1143 1177 1354 359 So here is what I walk away with after reading the letter, sorry momma shades that we couldn't pay you fair market rental prices for the house, and even after your taxes and insurance and repairs and tenant problems are making you go negative now we would hate to see these poor people thrown into the streets - they might come rob us and steal from us - so you take the loss to placate the poor while we THINK about maybe giving you an increase sometime later with our staff of single moms that are so stressed out and just came to this country and barely speak english or can use a computer they will be just as slow in getting anything done as a slug racing to the other side of the road - thanks a lot sucker. Patron has been predicting a res real estate crash on his thread since when? 2001? Luckily my mom did not listen and held on and has seen amazing profit if she sells - now I think it is time for her to sell - but we are having problems getting the tenant evicted - she is getting the housing authority involved and does not want to leave after not paying rent for many months.

To: russwinter who wrote (30394)	4/12/2005 12:47:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Another Wizard smoke and mirror core CPI trick, housing equivalent rents, is now disappearing: Report: Lower vacancies lift rents Careful I remember rants about corn and beans all the way up as if it was "inflation" as opposed to weather and plantings. I did not hear any talks of deflation on the way to near all time lows in corn and wheat. Is the price of oil related more to 1) peak oil 2) geopolitical concerns 3) excessive US$ If your answer is 3 then explain the sub $20 oil in 2000 That said, are housing prices related to inflation? You bet. But.... even more so to rampant speculation Let's see how far they drop and whether or not you scream "deflation" during the drop or cleverly attempt to switch to rent prices which perhaps even go up. My point is simple: Not every price increase is a result of inflation, of course not every drop is deflation either. Mish