To: SilentZ who wrote (229093 ) 4/13/2005 3:32:47 PM From: tejek Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1572711 This is how its gone for nearly two years. Oil goes up based on bad news in Iraq or Nigeria. Then the latest weekly inventory report on oil comes out.....followed by the weekly nat. gas report. Both show good inventories and so oil tanks. It continues tanking until there is another pipeline blow up in Iraq or national elections in Venezuela or OPEC announces they are going to reduce production or the Weather Bureau predicts a cold month. Then it starts to go back up. The analyst in the article say this is typical action in Spring.......when oil/gas start their inventory builds. However, both nat. gas and oil inventories consistently have run above average for the past six months.....even during the winter......and yet crude continues to stay at or near an all time high. Elroy says price is determine by the equation of demand and supply. I think in most situations that's true. But I don't think its true with oil in 2004-2005. FWIW. ted ************************************************************Crude Falls on Inventory Data By Elinor Arbel Staff Reporter 4/13/2005 1:57 PM EDT Oil prices tanked again Wednesday after a government report showed strong gains in crude and gasoline inventories last week. Light, sweet crude for May delivery, which has fallen more than 7% this month, was down $1.61 to $50.25 a barrel on Nymex. Unleaded gasoline futures fell about 4 cents to $1.49 a gallon. The Energy Department says crude stocks rose by 3.6 million barrels last week -- their ninth straight weekly gain -- while gasoline stocks rose by 800,000 barrels. Analysts had been expecting a 300,000-barrel gain in crude stocks and flat gasoline inventories. With the peak summer driving season coming up, the market's focus is on gasoline supplies. Analysts have recently expressed concern about refining capacity not meeting motorists' demand, but recent data showing an increase in U.S. refinery output coupled with growing gasoline inventories appear to be turning the argument in favor of the bears. "Spring is normally the time when there are higher stock builds. This is a seasonal trend rather than a long-term, structural one," says Peter Zeihan, energy analyst as Stratfor, a private consulting group. Come summer, Zeihan expects inventory to remain tight as demand from both the U.S. and China stays brisk. "Oil prices will remain high because of demand, and gasoline will stay around the $2 per gallon level for a while," he says. On Tuesday, oil prices fell almost $2 a barrel after the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for worldwide oil consumption, highlighting a decrease in Chinese demand. Traders are also keeping an eye on OPEC, which is considering another increase to its official output quota. The cartel is close to approving a 500,000-barrel-a-day increase, having agreed to one of the same size in mid-March. An International Energy Agency monthly report says that OPEC's production quotas for March were 29.1 million barrels per day. OPEC's maximum pumping capacity is said to be 32 million barrels a day. World oil consumption in the first quarter averaged 84.6 million barrels a day, the IEA says. It is expected to drop to 82.7 million in the second quarter before rising again to 86.1 million barrels a day by year-end. Go to NEXT PAGE thestreet.com