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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (30513)	4/13/2005 3:19:34 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Apr 13 2005 15:00 trotsky (Gold Zone@Iranian exchange) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved hard to say...it remains to be seen whether the proposed exchange will actually succeed ( some other ME country has tried it before, and failed to attract sufficient trading volume ) . but since you mention Iran, if, as some say ( for instance, Scott Ritter, the former UNSCOM inspector whose predicitions about Iraq - mostly the 'it will be attacked, and no WMD will be found because there aren't any' - turned out to be deadly accurate ) , Iran is next 'on the menu' of the empire's perpetual war agenda, this would obviously lead to higher oil prices, irrespective of global demand growth. however, i'm not so sure that Ritter will be right about the schedule of the regime change adventure this time, since the president, naturally, implements policy according to the latest opinion polls, which indicate a less favorable public climate for war. Date: Wed Apr 13 2005 14:43 trotsky (AU-NB) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this is correct, i've noticed said divergences as well - they are present in virtually all the charts of individual issues as well. usually such divergences indicate that at the very least a bounce is in the offing. but that 'last squeeze' should normally coincide with a shake-out in the PoG, and not with a $2 rally. like i said, i don't know what the problem is ( a few guesses suggest themselves as noted earlier ) , i only know there IS apparently a problem. we'll see...maybe another 'hammer' will have developed by the close Date: Wed Apr 13 2005 14:33 trotsky (frustrated@auction) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yes, i've seen it...the danger of moving the treasury debt to the short end could soon become a bit more appreciated if this keeps up. Date: Wed Apr 13 2005 14:30 trotsky (Hambone, 13:42) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yes, a friend pointed out to me today that what we're seeing may be a sign of a developing liquidity problem, which would of course hit the entire market. needless to say, that won't be good either. the pm's will probably decouple at some point, but the question is when and from what level. btw. gold itself could also get victimized by this...commodities are getting hit, and if more evidence of an economic slowdown emerges ( and that seems HIGHLY likely ) , they will get hit more. again, gold should outperform the CRB going forward, but if the hedge funds begin to lose money on their many long positions in other commodity futures, they may be tempted to cash in in gold simply on account of trying to raise liquidity.