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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (41916)	4/14/2005 2:01:47 PM
From: MIRU	Respond to of 206325

Dennis, Re: inventories - first, thanks for posting the RJ stuff. They have done pretty good work for energy investors, up to now, from what I have seen. As for inventories, Yes, we bulls may be doomed and all the Hubbert Peak stuff may be hooey. However, in the past, other than the 70's embargo or overthrow of the Shah, energy users never had to worry much about taking responsibility for inventory levels, since there was always excess OPEC production available. Some people think that's not true anymore. If so, comparing "post-Hubbert" inventory numbers with historical numbers may be a mistake. "just-in-time" (apples) compared to "as much as we can get our hands on" (oranges)

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (41916)	4/14/2005 6:57:42 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

Inventories are an important factor. But keeping your eyes on inventory at the expense of the futures strip action, days forward coverage and expectations for future S/D balances has proven to be a mistake. Look at NG for the last year and look at the chart for the NG 18 month strip.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (41916)	4/15/2005 12:42:13 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

* EXTREMELY IMPORTANT CHART FOR OIL BULLS * ...more Reality Check time people. raymondjamesecm.com Go to page 5 of this Raymond James PDF File/Report to the Chart titled: * Comparison of Nominal and Euro adjusted WTI Oil Prices * - WTI Oil Prices are up 51% in Nominal Terms since 2000. - But ! - in Euro adjusted terms, WTI Oil Prices are DOWN - 2% since the November 2000 highs. And people wonder why the OSX is still below 1997 highs ? First & Foremost...the Price of Oil is where it is at due to the US Dollar & Euro reversal - as that Chart clearly shows. - not because of Matt Simmons Peak Oil Thesis, or Don Coxe's recent discovery of the 50 year old Hubberts Peak theory.... not from Arjun Murti of Goldman Sach's Super Spike Cycle Call, not because of James Cramer on Mad Money pimping & pumping Oils 5 nights a week, not because of any of the complete and total BS about a Refining Crisis... and not because of any of the Bull Hooey spoon fed and willingly swallowed by the lemmings here... The message from Raymond James to the Permabulls here is loud and clear: * IT'S BEEN THE US DOLLAR / EURO EXCHANGE RATE - STUPID ! * On top of that; even the most permabullish of Oil Analysts, all openly acknowledge a $5 to $8 MidEast Terrorist Risk Premium in Oil Prices here as well. God Forbid....the US Dollar rallies and/or any of the Risk Premium comes out of Oil. ********************************************************************************************************************************************** Message 21228430 Even the new paradigm bulls at Raymond James had to admit that the inventories data was "very bearish" in their DOE Petroleum Inventory Update. raymondjamesecm.com Inventories do matter, no matter how sophisters try to spin it. < Well said ! > ***************************************************************************************************************************************** Message 21230373 13 April 2005 12:16 pm Reuters NewsServiceLine (c) 2005 Reuters Limited NEW YORK, April 13 (Reuters) - Recent record high oil and gasoline prices may finally be having a dampening effect on U.S. consumer demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's data on Wednesday showed. << aka: THE CURE FOR HIGH OIL PRICES - IS HIGH OIL PRICES >> Both gasoline demand and total oil product demand are less than 2004 rates in the past two weeks, according to EIA figures. That is the first time this has happened this year. << whodathunkit ? >> ...Pillar after Pillar of the Permabull story is getting knocked out. How many different "bullish" sources have we now seen change in both tone & tenor vis a vie The Oil Story of late ? Bulls made some money here of late without "really" knowing, or understanding WHY they made it.... keeping it - will be quite another story. Tic Toc`