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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (325)	4/14/2005 2:28:33 PM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1183

The EROEI for tar sands and oil shale, probably the most promising stopgaps, is 1.5 and 1.35 whereas light sweet crude is around 30 so that's a twenty-fold price increase. Long before prices get that high, buying the US deficit will be the last thing foreign economies will want to do. Tar sand treatment also takes a lot of natural gas which is also approaching its own peak. Shifting to coal runs up against that 15 year infrastructure build problem. The entire situation calls for an immediate effort that dwarfs The Manhattan Project, the "get to the moon" project and the Marshall Plan put together. If we're at peak oil now, and I haven't seen anything that shows we aren't, and an immediate oil replacement crash program IS started, a 15 year recession, although not permanent, will certainly feel like it.