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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (62001)	4/14/2005 7:08:47 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

<Well, this decade is a rerun of the 1990s, with the same economic drivers plus a large dose of negative inflation courtesy of China.> Hello ACF. Don't forget India! Another billion people leaving the closed-border socialist stone age. It's not a rerun of the 1990s though, it's a juiced up turbo-charged version, with the cyberspace revolution now actually underway, with real returns, not speculative ones. Investments are directed now to more realistic prospects. China, India and other places are coming into their own, providing a vast human intellectual and energy propulsion with vast economies of scale and reduction of unit costs. Your theory that 2009 will see a crunch as the baby boomers pack it in is wrong. Take a broader point of view, as our estimable idol Uncle Al KBE now does, and you'll see from the perspective of a geostationary satellite that in a relatively borderless world [with respect to trade if not human emigration], the North American and Euro baby-boomers are a blip in the world's demographics. 2 billion Asians will render 20 million North American aging baby boomers trivial. QUALCOMM, MSFT and other Dow/S&P/Naz companies will be selling to them and hiring them. Profits will boom and markets will zoom. The industrial revolution lasted 100 years. The cyberspace revolution has really just begun. The industrial revolution replaced our muscles. The cyberspace revolution replaces our brains and compresses time to near zero [for example snail mail took a month for round trip communications, cybermail takes brain processing time only - and computers can even reply "I'm sorry, I'm out of the office, but I've forwarded your email to my cyberphone as I've been waiting to hear from you. This automated response does not mean I have seen your mail". Soon, computers will reply as an avatar which knows what I would say. The fun is just beginning. Mqurice PS: I haven't checked official records, and it might be personal bias due to becoming a grandfather [in June] and great uncle [Jake born in November], but the streets are seething with infants and under 5s. Since we are baby-boomers, and our offspring are all now of prime child-producing age, it's not surprising. It's an echo of the echo baby boom. There are also lots of twins. My wife suggested it might be because they are in their 30s and with somewhat lower fertility are getting fertility treatment with resultant high rate of twins. I have no idea whether that's true or not, but the crowds of children and twins are what I see too. Swarms of children now will mean lots of highly energized demand in 2009, like birds with nests and chicks in spring exhibit very high energy levels and demand.