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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (7806)	4/15/2005 12:20:38 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Since Friday when I flipped from long to short, RYVNX is up 6.2%. I thought we'd see a late rally today, but I was wrong, that never happened. I think instead we will see it early in tomorrow's session. The 50 sma and the top rail of the BBs are at $37.04 and $37.02 respectively, just two cents apart. That is chart resistance also. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLyb20,2.0]&pref=G BB width was 0.99 yesterday, 1.22 today. All the major indices are at yearly lows now. Only the Dow is above the 200 sma. QQQQ is down 3% on the week, which is a lot, excessive I think. Oil is trading back up over $51 now, but I really don't think oil is a major determinant of market direction. Almost the whole time oil has rallied over the last two years, the market just ignored it, with only a few short exceptions. Then, when oil prices corrected sharply, it had little effect---the indices sold off hard anyway. Looking at the volume today, I can see evidence that we will get a significant relief rally in the next few days. I would not be surprised to see that rally test the resistance region beginning at $37, but if so, it will be turned back. Probably we will see some excellent earnings news or something that will seem to provide the catalyst. Market internals also indicate a short term rally here, beginning tomorrow. At the moment, the index futures are trading down quite a bit, but I think that will change before the open. We might see just a small gap down, but tomorrow will be an up day. ....all IMHO, of course.... T

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (7806)	4/15/2005 2:25:34 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 8752

As I predicted months ago, QQQQ has now hit $35---actually the low of the day so far was $34.87, with a V-bottom reversal, stochastic crossover from oversold territory, and supportive volume there: 139.142.147.22 Yesterday and now today there was substantial supportive volume. I think we are seeing the beginning of the bottom in the medium-term correction here, which means I anticipate a resumption of the long-term uptrend at any time now. 139.142.147.218 I just flipped from short to long. I don't expect much more downside from here, but there is a possibility we could remain down here for a while with some false starts (accompanied by a working off of the now limited residual resistive volume and a further accumulation of supportive volume to add to the pool) before QQQQ finally takes off. Again, I can't see much more downside here, so IMHO downside risk is very limited. We are sitting on very solid long-term support now. I would get all your dry powder ready here.... steal the kids' piggy bank if necessary. T