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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (62018)	4/15/2005 7:27:34 AM
From: Slagle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Energyplay, I shorted PII (Polaris) on the HDI (Harley) earnings. Polaris is bound to be getting some stiff competition from Chinese 4-wheelers (ATV's) from Eton and a whole bunch of no-name Chinese ATV's that people are literally selling on the side of the road. Polaris is also trying to go after Harley in the cruiser big bike market and there are so many people doing this I just don't see it. Polaris does make a good 4-wheeler that farmers and hunters like but that market is bound to suffer too. I'm a bike guy and don't like Harley or Polaris so maybe I am letting this get personal. Still, I think its a good short. Slagle

To: energyplay who wrote (62018)	4/16/2005 6:11:02 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello EP, <<How's the fun world of homebuilder shorts ?>> My short positions, comprised of housing, sub-prime, internet, and retail, both direct and via long LEAP puts, are officially in the money now. We are only getting started to what I believe will be trauma, tragedy, hope, despair, dissolution, panic, confiscation, redistribution, evaporation, lines of people, crowds of agitation, and regret. We here at the BBR tried to warn folks, offered our time and energy to counsel, and the people not in as good touch with the Force argued with us until they became blue in the face. It is still way early in the process of Collapse, and there is plenty of time for the escape from almost certain disaster. <<Jim Cramer says the FED might back down on raising rates as soon as they realize how bad they have hit the economy - like GM,Ford, IBM, etc>> Yes, I believe the FED may in fact hesitate. However, I say, “so what?”, because … (a) the hesitation will only ensure the continuing collapse of the USD, even as (b) the hesitation will only serve to delay the completion of financial and real estate asset values collapse in nominal terms. I think DOW is on course for 5,000 and under, and the Dollar will also collapse by another 50%, bring a semblance of balance at 75% death-level discount across most asset classes via galaxy-wide re-pricing. Chugs, J

To: energyplay who wrote (62018)	4/20/2005 8:22:10 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

i think real property tax increase, genuine wage decrease, true liquidity ebb, capped by nominal interest rate rise, will do the nasties to housing, a more dangerous market than the energy exchange, and much more leveraged than technology ever was the spectacle will be ... spectacular; certainly much more so than 2000-2003, and perhaps even more global. do not hesitate, get short, is what i figure, and in mind-bending tranche strength the cleansing will likely be thorough, and if not immediately, than even more so in the not far future inevitability is a constant, not an equation