Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41968)	4/15/2005 9:17:07 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

That works. I gotta say the chart is compelling, however it seems to fly in the face of the actual change in the relative values of the two currencies for the last 15 months... This warrants a little more checking... I'd like to see how I come up differently as this seems to further indicate currency was a minor contributor in 2003 relative to the entire move..... exactly opposite to my perception. Thanks Kastel

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41968)	4/15/2005 9:33:14 AM
From: fp_scientist	Respond to of 206325

Very interesting chart. What if one would do the comparison based on a basket of currencies weighted by size of the economy and/or oil consumption done by the countries that used that currency? Perhaps the picture would be intermediate between the two graphs shown there. Just guessing ...

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41968)	4/15/2005 9:34:20 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206325

Let me see if I understand this because my mind is failing after a week of looking into how currencies, deficits, and central banks work. Oil is bought/sold in USD. The USD has been falling to help exports reduce the trade deficit. The Japanese and Chinese central banks have been buying dollars to support their pegs, which they promptly use to buy T-bills and T-notes. The Euro isn't pegged so it has appreciated against the dollar. As a result since the Euro is floating and has appreciated oil costs a lot less in Euros than it does in Dollars. Since China and Japan ARE pegged, their chart lines would basically track the USD line. The conclusion is that the real price of oil hasn't changed significantly. The rise in price is mostly due to the falling dollar. An additional effect is that countries who peg their currency to the dollar are seeing the value of both their currency and dollar reserves falling as the dollar falls, AND they are paying more dollars for anything denominated in USD. Is that the gist of it? If so then all of this is actually STARTING to make sense.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41968)	4/15/2005 2:11:03 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

Slider, stockhouse.ca POO Euro relative... what are the euro G7 folks whining about ? China must be in pain I agree completely.. since they are pegged.. BTW... in your scenario this should be a break.. to see if China capitulates ... and if they do not... onward and upward.. time frame to be determined... ?? Kastel The part I thought was most noteworthy was the bit about asking for energy conservation measures as national policy. Interesting to see this kind of press while the energy market is selling off. FWIW Today looks like capitulation but it may be just another stop along the way. It will depend on if oil holds $50, IMO. "G7 To Call On Oil Suppliers To Boost Output - G7 Source 13:15 EST Friday, Apr 15, 2005 WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized countries are going to call on oil-producing countries to boost supply in an effort to cool down prices, a G7 official said Friday. "There's going to be the usual call on oil suppliers to boost supply," said the official, who is attending the G7 meeting in Washington starting Saturday, on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings. The IMF said in its latest semi-annual forecasts this week that high oil prices are a key risk to the global economy both over the short- and long-term. Oil prices, currently hovering around $50 a barrel, have risen nearly 73% since the beginning of 2004, according to the IMF. The European Union last week cited high oil prices when it cut its 2005 growth forecast for the 12-nation euro zone. The G7 is concerned that oil prices have remained stubbornly high for a long time and may not fall by as much as previously expected, the official said. "Current oil price levels may not be far from the long-term trend," he warned. The G7 will also call on countries to adopt energy-saving policies, an area in which European countries are ahead of the rest of the world, the official said. At previous meetings of the G7, European officials sought without success to persuade partners to include references to the importance of diversifying energy supply sources away from oil in the group's final communique. The G7 is slated to issue its final statement Saturday. -By Luca Di Leo, Dow Jones Newswires; +39 335 617 1960; luca.dileo@ dowjones.com Dow Jones Newswires 04-15-05 1315ET Copyright (C) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved"