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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: a.handbag. who wrote (41982)	4/15/2005 3:48:36 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

re: ["Slider, I think you have become hostage to the "oil inventory builds"] ...not at all. Quite the opposite in fact. 1. I realize that the US Dollar/Euro Currency reversal has been the primary catalyst for present Oil Prices. 2. I realize that the China Story...just like any other prior market "mania" event...is significantly "over-stated" and over-invested in, is over-priced and has expectation way, way too high. - also; just like the Internet-Tech Bubble....the downside risks have been virtually ignored. 3. The Oil Bulls have assumed that Oil Prices will rise into an Economic and Geopolitical vacuum. - they've bought into what the New Paradigmers were trying to spoon feed us of late... ie: that Oil was not going to rock the US Economy like it had in the past... that our present US Economy was so resiliant that it would take $6 gasoline to impact economic activity, or driving/gasoline demand. ...you people bought into this BS - not me. 4. Speaking of statistic's and rounding errors. Why do the Permabulls continually ignore, literally never even mention - the inventory build numbers from one agency when it's higher than the other ? Like the recent API/IEA difference of 4.4 vs. 5.4 million Bbls ? Obviously; both bears & bulls are going to pick & choose what stats they want to use...and which ones they want to ignore. 95% of the information from all of the agency's is continually revised and is open for debate. Look at the speculation led by Matt Simmons and now recently Don Coxe about Ghawar ? This is the epitome of "spin doctoring".... it is sheer speculation; but yet the Bulls have bought it lock, stock & barrel as fact. I'll repeat - Don Coxe has no more knowledge of Ghawar...than he does Uranus. - that is not hyperbole....that is reality. Matt Simmons... ? - follow the money. Matt Simmons at least has done America a service by over-stating the timeframe and impacts of Peak Oil... As "Americans" - we should be happy he has. Otherwise the Bush/Cheney Energy Plan would never get passed and America would do nothing about Peak Oil....untill it finally does arrive. Politically; Matt Simmons should be a hero in my book....Bush/Cheney were able to use his thesis to promote positive change for America. As far as Investing and Trading the Oilpatch.... shame, shame, shame on the Permabulls here for failing to be able to sort out Energy Policy Hyperbole from Market Reality. Matt Simmons is just doing his job... and he did it well. As I stated earlier - I give him an A+ for "salesmanship." Permabulls - failed to do their job... they faild to separate Energy Policy Spin Fodder from real market fundamentals...and now they're paying for it... Tic' Toc` The Market is ultimately the final arbiter. To your point on fixating on the Inventory Build Story; the issue here is not that "I" have been "fixated" on the Inventory Numbers...but, rather; that the Permabulls have both ignored and discounted them...now much to their obvious financial peril. The last thing I have done concerning my bearish bias of late is to fixate on any one componet of Oil Prices...quite the opposite. My case has been consistant. 1. The primary catalyst to Oil Prices have been the US Dollar/Euro Currency reversal. 2. The China story is vastly over-hyped; over-stated and the Risk of an interim Shock has been virtually discounted - when there are signals arising all over...even being stated by the Chinese themselves...that Danger is indeed neigh...and also that they expect Oil Prices to collapse... 3. Dont Fight the Fed....ie: the signal the Transports sent us etc. 4. Dont ignore the effect that Greenspans Debt, Credit and Housing/Refinance Bubble has had on keeping the US Economy propped up...and it has been, is and will have to be the same US Consumer who must keep the Global Economy propped up...and that is not going to continue much longer....not with a jobless & wageless economic prop job...along with a zero savings rate and the tapped out equity mania from the Housing Bubble.... Buffett's "Sharecropper Society" is no exaggeration. - it is no mistake that Bankruptcy Reform has arrived here and now. - it is also no mistake that Social Security Reform is being pushed here. Middle America has been raped, pillaged, used, abused and hung out to dry.... they just haven't awoke from Greenspans Ether yet...but, they will... 5. The Cure For High Oil Prices - Is High Oil Prices. - a spike from $20ish Oil to $50ish Oil...most assuredly will and is - impacting the US and in turn; the Global Economy.