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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pompsander who wrote (27906)	4/15/2005 12:39:00 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 60323

Can anyone give us a sceanario where the "house of cards" could collapse? Goodness knows, the market has been sorely disappointed in the past when earnings looked mighty good on (and below) the surface. The issue isnt whether they will meet earnings but if they will beat by enough. If gross margins were only 32%, I (as well as the Street) would be pretty disappointed. I see quite a bit of upside possible if they did as good a job this quarter with the 90nm transition as last quarter. Of course, with the recent drop, perhaps just meeting expectations would be enough now. The tech sector is getting taken to the woodshed... Slacker

To: pompsander who wrote (27906)	4/15/2005 1:17:44 PM
From: broozer	Respond to of 60323

Taking every extraneous known fact into the mix (demand, ASP, improved yields, marketing successes, design wins) it does not appear that SNDK can disappoint this quarter.. Pompsander I have to agree with you here. Everything looks good. Hopefully the gross margins will reflect the benign supply environment. The only issue I can foresee is low demand in the seasonally weak 1Q. I know the memory-stick sales have been strong due to the PSP, but I think they are a very very small portion of the sales mix. I know SNDK was expecting the MP3 sales to drop quite dramatically in Q1. Besides that, how much demand is there for CF/SD/USB products after the massive Xmas season? I know there will always be healthy demand, but is it enough to meet the market's expectations? My guess is yes......and I really like the new CFO who manages expectations very well and I like the fact that she only provides guidance for the current quarter. It has been proven, time and again (by SNDK), that it is very hard to forecast eps in the flash business due to the dynamic nature of the demand/supply situation. Quick recap...... Supply environment - great Demand environment - ???? Yields - don't know....was great in Q4 90nm Conversion - should continue to drive down costs Captive/Non-captive - forecasting 70/30...could be 75/25 Market Share - had to gain share this Q w/LEXR's performance Everything looks good to me......we'll see.......for sure, they will need to beat handily to have any chance of seeing $30. Interesting aside......the analyst from Smith Barney that made the correct call before the Q3 debacle (10/12/04) made the same call again just a week ago (4/6/05)....he reiterated his sell recommendation w/a $23 target. He has made pretty timely calls regarding SNDK. Hope he is wrong. Best, Broozer