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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: etchmeister who wrote (22806)	4/15/2005 3:34:47 PM
From: auriculatus	Respond to of 95622

Etchmeister, yup the chart indicates we should see good business for the chip equip cos, but look at the stock prices. Down 20-30% in two months. I still believe that this was the same type of setup that the big boys did before. The huge daily upgrades created the demand they sold into. The previous time they stocks moved off of the bottom, there were very few upgrades. The shorts were right when they pointed this out and we were wrong. No reason to not admit this. NVLS is already trading below 2 times book, which used to be a good entry point, yet with so many others still trading at 3 to 4 times book, this might get whacked a whole lot more (hopefully not, though). TSMC will be interesting, they report on the 26th. GS saying that Samsung and TSMC were front end loading their cap-ex, that can be maybe be seen as a positive, since there should be a couple of really strong quarters ahead since the equip cos can't recognize the revenue until the system is accepted. And I doubt that their orders from Q1 are already at that point by now. Still believe that the high oil price is due to the decline in the dollar and that has been caused by the huge deficit which in fact has been caused by a senseless war. Every time I am on I-10 (SUV central) I almost throw up when I see all these idiots riding around with their W'04 stickers. 300 billion for what. Europe has zero growth and huge costs, yet their currency has increased by 60% off of the lows? If we slide into a recession, they can thank the deficit.