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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14431)	4/15/2005 5:45:34 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Brian, keep in mind that the analysts will spin whatever direction they intend. Has anyone mentioned inventory levels lately? That was the buzz on the industry for months. Now that they can't use that as an excuse, they have taken a different approach. I find it remarkable that this analyst says that equipment orders have been front loaded to the first half of 2005 when we've seen nothing of the sort. We've seen numbers drop dramatically for both sales and orders for many equipment makers. How can this be if the sales are being front loaded? Of course the current numbers look awful. But now the extrapolation has changed to the numbers will continue to worsen throughout the year. The problem with articles like the one you printed is that it takes one or 2 'sound bites' and uses them to create a conclusion for the entire industry.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14431)	4/15/2005 6:06:24 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 25522

Last month the VLSI's ww B2B was reported in Silicon Strategies; it was .84 and they projected a pretty good increase in bookings. I think in case of IC's a B2B is more meaningful - as you remember they used to report the B2B for IC's; unfortunately not anymore. IPP: Industry Pulse Pro®: Both the equipment and IC B:B ratios were above 1.00 in March. 04-14 (more) As more chip makers report we should get a better picture

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14431)	4/15/2005 9:07:47 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 25522

RE: "ASML Holding NV and Lam Research Corp. posted lackluster results in their respective quarters." RE: "ASML reported disappointing Q1 results..." Lackluster - lacking vitality; dull. I don't think the managements of ASML and LRCX think their results were lackluster. ASML was extremely proud of their efforts. I don't know who was disappointed with ASML's results, which beat earnings expectations.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14431)	4/15/2005 9:15:16 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

This is like Fire versus Water... Excerpts from The Chip Insider®’s Weather Report: Order activity managed a small gain, but the rate of gain is slowing. However, there is lots of good news in our monthly forecast update. IC sales are moving strongly and matching our December forecast. We also can’t help but notice that so many who turned pessimistic early in the year are now revising their forecasts upwards. The evidence is growing to prove VLSI was right in having called the slowdown an inventory bubble and not a downturn. The inventory bubble that stalled growth last fall is clearly over. The inventory-to-billing ratio clipped 1.0 in March. Utilization is on the rise as well. FPD revenues also beat our forecast for March, which is another good sign. It is all gathering evidence that there will be an equipment order surge in 3Q05 to deal with shortages in chips. Shootouts turned down sharply, with only two announcements recorded. This was to be expected, as the quarter ended. SEZ continues to be the hot company, with Elpida placing orders for multiple SEZ 323 spin processing tools which will be used for backside and bevel-edge cleaning of 300mm wafers. Tegal received a multiple system order which included a 6540 advanced plasma etch system, as well as multiple 980 ACS and 900 Series plasma etch systems from a European IDM. We do have some things to worry about. Revenue per square inch of silicon (RPSI) is declining, but it is in profitable territory. Still, that means that chip makers’ margins will be constrained, which limits their ability to invest. Another indicator is the slowing Macroeconomy and more importantly the slowing money supply growth. But in general, conditions are improving and I don’t expect macroeconomic factors to play a role until 2006. for more you can visit the free section of VLSIresearch.com