Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seventh_son who wrote (30715)	4/17/2005 4:08:12 AM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 110194

Seventh, I think we are in stagflation now, and there has not been confirmation by the data due to the methodology used. Stagflation, provided the USD does not collapse and there is no financial systemic failure, may be best served by high-yield commodity plays, like royalty trusts. You need income to beat inflation, and in the 70's stagflation was largely caused by high oil prices, so getting income from energy and commodities would seem to be a logical approach. I think the commodities and energy are in a corrective down wave and will continue their march in a couple of months. As long as an investment pays a decent yield (5%+), I think a person can go bottom-fishing because the Fed is not likely (IMO) to go past 3.75% nominal and therefore, as you say, it will be difficult for bonds to perform here. I'm looking at trying to keep up with inflation through high yield. D