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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (42028)	4/15/2005 9:01:08 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206326

>>>a stable price<<< I don't think there has been a stable price for 35 years. It may be that a clear perception of vanishing supply will impose a more stable (and very high) price, as a clear perception of excess supply led to a pretty stable (and very low)price 1945-1970. I have been around long enough to remember a gasoline price war in New Jersey that led to gasoline being sold for less than 20 cents a gallon. But 85 cents a gallon only a few years ago was hardly less astonishing.

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (42028)	4/15/2005 9:09:30 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206326

One more piece of arithmetic. If gasoline was selling for under a dollar a gallon not so long ago, that must have included the costs of refining, distribution, retailing, and taxes. Let's say those costs now are $1.25 a gallon in the United States. There are 42 gallons in a barrel of crude. If the fraction of that barrel that goes into gasoline costs $2.00, as it would if gasoline at the pump were $3.25, then crude would be at $84. With gasoline at $4.25, crude could be at $126 a barrel. As a matter of fact, gasoline now sells for more than that in a lot of places in the world. Would Americans stop driving if gasoline were $3.25 a gallon? Would an alcoholic stop drinking if gin cost twice as much as it does?