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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (22966)	4/16/2005 10:00:33 AM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81310

Phil > means I haven't got a clue, and I doubt if anyone else has You sound like an enlightened man -- or is it an embittered one? >1. Gold has lost its claim of quality. If everything else is going to hell, including gold, obviously no one sees gold as a safe haven Gold is a commodity which has been functioning as a currency. It's "precious" status has been lost long ago. As regards a safe-haven, that's a myth. There is no such place. > 2. The big boys, hedge funds, etc. are liquidating their gold stocks alongside all others just to get out of the market and raise cash..... U.S. dollars. If you want quality, go to cash. One can't get capital appreciation by holding cash. Cash is only a temporizing measure. But they are liquidating positions, creating uncertainty and "shaking out" the market. For what it's worth, I don't see a big bear happening this time. >3. The weak stock prices precede the price of gold. The POG lags the stock action. That may be so but it hasn't happened -- yet. The gold price is still holding even though the prices of gold stocks have fallen. Moreover, the POG can fall to around $410-415, as it probably will, and still be within the parameters of its previous uptrend. stockcharts.com[l,a]dalaynay[de][pd50,2][ilb14!la12,26,9] > 4. Stocks were simply oversold. The big run up to $1000 or $10,000/oz just won't materialize. No, not just yet. > 5. It is all a vast conspiracy. (my favorite for lack of knowing anything else) <grin> But what are they conspiring to do? Support the market or depress the market? >6. Momentum players, weak hands, program selling of stocks (related to point #2) Yes. That's part of the play. Therefore all movements are amplified and particularly on the downside by the triggering of stop-losses. > 7. Unlimited faith in the U.S. dollar. It cannot ever fail. (see point #1) This in spite of the obvious weakness in the equity markets, fiscal and monetary problems, debt and deficits. As I see it, that's what it's all about -- establishing "value" in the paper money. And the way it's done is by depressing the value of assets vis a vis cash and paper assets, like Treasury bills. Indeed, you will hear the experts pronounce that the recent rise in TBills while equities have been falling is a flight to quality. stockcharts.com[l,a]dalaynay[de][pd150,2][ilb14!la12,26,9] > WHEN VIEWED IN THESE TERMS, IT SURE DOESN'T LOOK ENCOURAGING FOR GOLD.... Not in general terms but that's only because you had "special" expectations for gold. I have already paid over the years for for my little knowledge that gold has no "special" value. As I see it, gold is merely a speculative counter which at times is attractive and at other times it isn't. For what it's worth, I sold my gold shares two years ago but then, of course, in SA we have other considerations. >....or for any other market. Just like the nursery rhyme Ring-a-ring-a-rosy where all fell down!